GoT S8 Prediction – The Iron Bank Debt

The debt. The crown’s debt to the Iron Bank. I’m gonna try to replicate the journey I went
on. So I was watching season seven, and there’s
this really short scene where Randyll Tarly rides back to Jaime Lannister and says we
got the gold to King’s Landing safely. It’s through the gate. [-All the gold’s safely through the gates
of King’s Landing. -Good.] -Later, we get this scene transition where
you can hear somebody talking before you can see them. Scene transitions like this are a great place
to hide details that you don’t want the viewer to think about too hard. There’s about five seconds where you’re not
really paying attention because you’re still thinking about the last scene. But pay attention to the delivery of this
line. [-I must say I don’t think the Iron Bank has
ever had a debt of this magnitude] [repaid in a single installment.] [I always considered your father a very effective
and efficient man, ] [but you appear to be redefining those terms entirely.] [-You’re too kind, my lord.] -Now, for those who don’t speak sarcasm, that
was venom. Here it is again. [-I must say I don’t think the Iron Bank has
ever had a debt of this magnitude] [repaid in a single installment.] [I always considered your father a very effective
and efficient man, ] [but you appear to be redefining those terms entirely.] -If you’re not convinced, humor me. Supposing that this is sarcasm, the thing
that makes it sarcasm is that Cersei is redefining the terms effective and efficient in a bad
way rather than a good way. And if she’s redefining them in a bad way,
then his comparison of Cersei and Tywin takes on a new meaning, which is, you’re not nearly
as good at this game as your father. Which paints Cersei’s flattery in a funny
light because she missed the sarcasm. [-You’re too kind, my lord.] So what is so ineffective and inefficient
about Cersei paying back the crown’s debt in full to the Iron Bank? We’ve been told all along, and by Tywin Lannister
himself, that the Iron Bank is a serious threat. [-The crown owes the Iron Bank of Braavos
a tremendous amount of money.] [-How much?] [-A tremendous amount.] [That’s what the Iron Bank is, a temple.] [We all live in its shadow and almost none
of us know it.] [You can’t run from them, you can’t cheat them,
you can’t sway them with excuses.] [If you owe them money you don’t want to crumble
yourself.] [You pay it back.] Tywin makes the Iron Bank out to be this big
scary entity that you can’t escape, you can’t reason with, you can’t sway, and that’s just
wrong. Because we see in the very next episode that
Ser Davos can sway the Iron Bank to support Stannis. But it sounds like Tywin intends to pay back
the debt. And I believe that he does. Just not all of it at once. [-People who spend their money on this sort
of nonsense tend not to have it for long.] [-You ought to try enjoying something before
you die.] [You might find it suits you.] [Your heartfelt thank you is its own reward.] [I would imagine I’ll be hearing it again before
long.] [Wars are rather expensive. The Iron Bank will have its due.] [How they love to remind everyone!] [Almost as much as you Lannisters with your
debts.] [-I’m not worried about the Iron Bank.] [-We both know you’re smarter than that.] -Wait, what? He isn’t worried about the Iron Bank? But he gives the pay-em-back speech three
episodes after this. There’s something fishy. Maybe Tywin is just trying to act like a tough
guy in front of Olenna, but that doesn’t make a lot of sense. I’ve never seen Tywin try to act like a tough
guy and I’m not sure that he’s the bluffing type either. And what purpose would this bluff serve anyway? So let’s entertain the idea that he’s telling
the truth. Maybe he isn’t worried about the Iron Bank.
Why not? [-Can the treasury bear such expense?] [-I’ll have to borrow it. The Lannisters will accommodate, I expect.] [We already owe Lord Tywin three million gold. What’s another eighty thousand?] [-Are you telling me the crown is three million
in debt?] [-I’m telling you the crown is six million
in debt.] [-How could you let this happen?] [-The Master of Coin finds the money. The King and the Hand spend it.] -In season one, Ned finds out about the crown’s
enormous debt. Six million in total. Three million to Tywin Lannister. [-The royal wedding may end up being the most
expensive event in living memory.] [Summer has ended, hard days lie ahead.] -Tyrion is concerned about the cost of the
wedding, and Cersei is just annoyed every time somebody brings up money. She doesn’t think money is a big deal. She has always had an unlimited supply of
it. And so she doesn’t consider being in charge
of the money to be an important job. [-Not a good time to leave the crown’s finances
unattended.] [-Fully agreed.] -Eye roll. [-Which is why I’m naming you new Master of
Coin.] -Laugh. [-Master of Coin?] [-It would appear to be a position that best
suits your talents.] [-I’m quite good at spending money but a lifetime
of outrageous wealth ] [hasn’t taught me much about managing it.] [-I have no doubt you will prove equal to this
challenge.] -Sarcasm. This is a family of sarcasm. Tyrion is going through the finances that
Littlefinger had before him, and he’s shocked. [-He stealing it?] [-Worse, he’s borrowing it.] [-What’s wrong with that?] [-We can’t afford to pay it back, that’s what’s
wrong with it.] [The crown owes millions to my father.] [-Seeing as it’s his grandson’s ass on the
throne, I imagine he’ll forgive that debt.] [-Forgive a debt? My father?] [For a man of the world you’re strangely naive.] -Tyrion alludes to the Lannister words A Lannister
Always Pays His Debts. And he sort of makes fun of Bronn. But Bronn’s actually right. This is why I love Bronn, he points out the
obvious. Since House Lannister has the crown, Tywin
Lannister lending money to the crown is a lot like Tywin Lannister lending money to
Tywin Lannister. He’s invested in keeping the crown for his
family, but there are no consequences for not paying himself back. As long as his family has the crown, his family
will continue to inherit the crown because of divine right. So even if he has to invest all of his personal
money into keeping the crown, it’s worth it. Because if his family were to lose the crown,
whoever they lost it to would have to annihilate his bloodline in order to establish a new
claim. [-I’ve never borrowed money before.] [I’m not clear on the rules.] [-Well… the basic principle is…] [I lend you money, and after an agreed upon
period of time, you return it.] [With interest.] [-And what if I don’t?] [-Well you have to.] [-But what if I don’t?] [-This is why I don’t lend you money.] [Anyway, it’s not my father I’m worried about.] [It’s the Iron Bank of Braavos. We owe them tens of millions.] [If we fail to repay these loans, the bank
will fund our enemies.] [One way or another, they always get their
gold back.] -There’s an old saying that goes something
like this. If I owe the bank one hundred dollars, I have
a problem. If I owe the bank one hundred million dollars,
the bank has a problem. The meaning being that the bank will never
get that much money back from me because I’ll never have that much money. And they probably shouldn’t have lent it to
me in the first place. They have a lending problem. Especially if I haven’t paid back what I already
owe them. It creates a situation where the bank has
to protect the borrower because the borrower owes them too much money for the bank to let
them fail. So the bank is thinking, he’s asking for another
loan. But I have to loan it to him because I can’t
afford to let him fail. He owes me too much money, and if he fails
I’ll never get that money back. Because whoever defeats him isn’t going to
inherit his debt. Unless! I think this is the point Davos made that
ultimately convinced the bank to support Stannis. [-He’s an honest man and he’s your best chance
to get back the money you’ve sunk into Westeros,] [which is a lot, I imagine.] -Because if Stannis wins, not only do they
get to replace an unreliable borrower in Tywin, but they get to replace him with a Baratheon. Someone who’s going to inherit the debt that’s
already owed. [-When Tywin’s gone, who do you back?] [-That is a problem for another time.] [-Begging your pardon, I think it’s a problem
for now.] [And he doesn’t just talk about paying people
back, he does it!] -So that’s why I think Tywin did intend to
eventually pay back the debt. [-If you owe them money, you don’t want to
crumble yourself.] [You pay it back.] -Because he knows there’s gonna come a point
where the bank says okay this motherfucker clearly has no intention of paying us back. Let’s cut our losses. Let’s replace him by funding his enemies. So Tyrion was right about that too. [-If we fail to repay these loans, the bank
will fund our enemies.] -Tywin is racing the threat of his lenders
funding his enemies. And the fact that the bank decided to support
Stannis shows me that they already want to cut their losses and they’re looking for enemies
to fund. [-Daenerys Targaryen has three full grown
dragons.] [How well do wooden ships fare against fire-breathing
dragons?] -The bank wants to switch sides to Daenerys
because three dragons are likely to win, but they’re conflicted because they want to protect
the debt they have tied up in Cersei and the Baratheon-Lannister line. If Daenerys wins, the debt will disappear
because Daenerys isn’t a Baratheon and she won’t inherit the debt. The bank will never see that money again. [-The slave trade has entered a downturn,
it’s true.] [-From what I gather she considers herself
more of a revolutionary than a monarch.] [In your experience, how do bankers usually
fare with revolutionaries?] [The Lannisters owe the Iron Bank quite a lot
of money but Lannisters always pay their debts.] [Do former slaves? Or Dothraki or dragons?] [-Your father’s daughter indeed.] -Imagine this scene. Daenerys has just won the war. She’s sitting up on her throne and the banker
comes in and he says ‘Excuse me miss dragon Queen. Do you see that big pile of gold over there? That’s supposed to be mine.’ And Daenerys is gonna say ‘You mean you’ve
been funding my enemies with all of this gold while I was in exile? Dracarys!’ So I don’t think the banker is that stupid
or suicidal. That scene will never happen. He’ll have to take the ten million gold loss
in silence. And I think maybe Tywin knew that. [-Give me a fortnight. Stay in King’s Landing as my honored guest] [and when you return to Braavos I swear to you, my debt will be paid in full.] -So rather than paying back the debt in full,
maybe what Tywin would have done was to tell the banker ‘Look you see this big pile of
gold over here? That’s all gonna be yours paid back in full,
right after you help me win the war.’ I think that’s why the banker keeps mockingly
comparing Cersei to Tywin. [-The Iron Bank wants its gold back.] [-Your father never minced words either.] [Your father’s daughter indeed.] -Because he knows that Tywin never would have
made this mistake. And Cersei eats it right up. [-Give me a fortnight. Stay in King’s Landing as my honored guest.] -Because she has always wanted to be like
Tywin. [-Did it ever occur to you that I might be
the one who deserves your confidence ] [and your trust? Not your sons?] [-I don’t distrust you because you’re a woman.] [I distrust you because you’re not as smart
as you think you are.] -Look how happy the banker is now that he
knows he’s getting his money back and he’ll be free to switch to the side that has dragons. [-Its well-being is a matter of arithmetic
not sentiment.] [And the current arithmetic is outstanding!] [Yes, perhaps we could be of assistance in
some current venture.] -Now he’s doing spy work. He’s digging to find out Cersei’s plans so
that he can help Daenerys beat her. And Cersei spills them. [-My Hand, Qyburn, has made overtures to the
Golden Company in Essos.] [-I know them well.] [They’ve helped us recover significant sums
from parties who had fallen into deeper ears.] [-That’s good to hear.] -Oh that’s your plan! The Golden Company. Biggest, most powerful mercenary group in
the world. I’ve heard of them! I’ve done some deals with them once or twice. [-I, too, would like them to recover some
things that belong to me.] [-Rest assured, Your Grace, you can count on
the Iron Bank’s support.] [Uh, as soon as the gold arrives.] -Thanks for the cash, Tywin. Oh, sorry. Slip of the tongue!

100 comments on “GoT S8 Prediction – The Iron Bank Debt”

  1. Joe Srok says:

    You're missing the plot point that thr lannisters stole high garden's treasury and that's how cersei repaid the debt.

  2. Brain Snott says:

    The underlying winner is the banks, just like in real life. No talk of ever going after the banks.

  3. Armendicus says:

    Cersei is Fucked

  4. Louis Scarani says:

    We all want Danny and drogon to live but I dont think it's in the cards. Jon will sit the iron throne. It's his destiny. Only way forward then is for the writers to kill off danny.

  5. Brave Sir Robin says:

    This show is telling a secret in world society people don't pay much attention to. It doesn't matter who has power or who wants it the Iron Bank or Federal Reserve control it all. If the currency is debt based and you back both sides you cannot lose. This concept is not a story we watch on TV it is a reality we live. We don't get it though. We're all crack babies. We never experienced free money so we can't know what it feels like.

  6. Sighentist says:

    This was interesting. I enjoyed the breakdown.

  7. Roberto Sanchez Rico says:

    This is really interesting

  8. MV 2112 says:

    Interesting though because if what you are suggesting is true , the Golden Company will have no allegiance to Cersei and could turn the tide of war .

  9. MV 2112 says:

    Interesting though because if what you are suggesting is true , the Golden Company will have no allegiance to Cersei and could turn the tide of war .

  10. Asylum247 says:

    It would be amazing if they explored this in the last couple episodes.

  11. Dallas Key says:

    Lady Olenna to Jaime Lannister “why didnt’t he (tywnn) take high garden the moment the gold mines ran dry?”

  12. Tommy Shen says:

    Tfw you expected the writers to actually know what they're doing

  13. 6string42 says:

    Guess that debt doesnt mean shit now does it

  14. toag says:

    problem around 6:30 is that Joffery and Tommen are baeratheon. It's not the lannister line on the throne. Like it or not had this line gone on, those debt can't be forgiven because the baeratheon line will surely grow apart further down the lineage as they marry other houses, and then the lannister have spent a lot of families fortunes to keep another family on the throne with no repayment. Tyrion is right , Braun and you are wrong.

  15. TC Johnson says:

    How does it feel to wrong about everything ?

  16. iupetre says:

    Yeah… I wish you were right.

  17. wohnungsnomade says:

    Dude your theory is actually too clever for D&D. Season 8 became just trash. Its fucking sad that a random youtube guy had a better idea for a partial-plot than D&Ds "Golden company runs away before getting roasted" Man GoT is pathetic….

  18. Malek Mahmud says:

    Another prediction… Another name will be added in Arya’s list of names: Daenerys, the mother of dragons !!!

  19. Prathmesh Patil says:


  20. BLIGHTY says:

    Where's your stupid prediction now huh? 😂

  21. Luke Friend says:

    😂I really like this one.its so true,this video of in depth iron bank mentality and the fact also that made me realise till now.if the papa Lannister didn't get arrowed down like his nuggy effort.he would of been a "real" game changer.his years of battle expertise tactic/strategy got him to that point!one thing that is rarely done nowadays in movies is alternate endings.wishful thinking I know.tho the original cluedo did it.they pulled it off!
    I recon it would of worked very well for GOT as there are many crying babies around the internet.this may of silenced most,but you know as the old saying can't please everyone.

  22. ipwnukazu says:

    yeah I knew they weren't smart enough to actually involve the iron bank and the golden company properly

  23. T. D says:

    So the debt turned out to be a non issue as were the golden company.

  24. Jackal says:

    You sound like a little bitch bro with all the stupid complaing.

  25. Carium says:

    Lol no roles played, they just existed that one time and were never heard from again

  26. bluto212 says:

    I think you made a very sharp point; If Cersei pays the Iron Bank back in full, then the iron Bank has no reason to support Cersei's side.

  27. P Snitkin says:

    I think you need to stop making videos and get a job.

  28. Dallas Segno says:

    i made an accurate prediction. that season 8 would be rian johnsoned.

  29. Rockerboy says:

    The Iron bank is bankrupt by season 8

  30. Muhammad Jami says:

    this theory just went up in big green wild fire flames

  31. adam chan says:

    International bankers towards international war ?

  32. Les Deffner says:

    S8E5 Over. Whelp…. looks like the Iron Bank ain't getting paid. 🤣😂🔥🐲

  33. wheredidileavemycell says:

    WRRRRRRONG the bank is fucking powerless against shit writing, brought to you by dumbass Dan & Dave….nothing fucking matters when shitty writing can kill ANYONE

  34. Anant Varman says:

    Well….fire and blood

  35. John Meyer says:

    Too bad the writerz arent paying as much attention as you are

  36. Matthew Wells says:

    It was largest quickest payment it was a compliment of cruelty

  37. Matthew Wells says:

    This all a testament to federal reserve

  38. Matthew Wells says:

    Totally talking about the United States government

  39. Sovjetikos says:

    You make clever points.
    Too bad Dumb&Dumber are not clever. they're idiots. :]

  40. The Medieval Nerd says:

    All the fan stuff turned out to be a million times better of what we were served in the show. Boo!

  41. Doug LeStarge says:

    They paid the debt in full. You missed it I guess

  42. Jakob kell says:

    Dany would have a dragon behind and "Dracary " would be her comeback

  43. Nate Spinney says:

    Season 8 ruins it all

  44. Catsincages says:

    If Season 8 wasn't a steaming pile I might have cared.

  45. Kaytana Zero says:

    Credit dies with Jamie Daenerys burns kings landing

  46. Storm Herald Maxximillian says:

    This person thought this show made sense..

  47. Alex A says:

    "D&D kinda forgot about the Iron Bank…"

  48. Cujo says:

    The iron bank is…. The IRS…. No difference

  49. B T says:

    “If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.”

    It’s just like in WW1 when the US loaned Britain (and other countries) a ton of money over the years, to the point where Britain was holding the cards after awhile, effectively forcing the US to join the war at some point.

  50. boiboiboi says:

    Everyone is dead , gendry sit on the throne , iron bank gets the money


    So since the Iron Bank funded the purchase of the golden army and the construction of all of those scorpion things for cersi, does tyrion have to pay that back or what?

  52. Peter L says:


  53. Adarsh Sharma says:

    that's why those war elephant's didn't arrive

  54. Tsar Alester says:

    They have to win Season 8

  55. Manas Bapat says:

    LMFAO sorry bruh…your predictions are too much for the mentally retarded writers DnD to grasp … "OOH DEBT WUT IS THAT LUL"…..just stop making predictions buddy.

  56. YAMI1300 says:

    I honestly feal bad.You put 10 times more efort than those idiots.

  57. Michael Prospero says:

    My thinking is that from Tywins point of view owing the Iron Bank money is a tactical move. By owing money to them you have some security, they obviously want you to pay them back so they will protect their investment i.e the crown. Cersei's mistake in paying them back was that she no longer has the interest of the Iron Bank behind the crown, so they no longer care to fight for her. She severely miscalculated and she payed the price, dearly.

  58. Martin Brothánek says:

    Now this is just sad…

  59. UNN After Dark says:

    This video did not age well lol.

  60. Michael Hawkins says:

    The only person that saw Arya coming was Gendry.

  61. Truelove says:

    George R R Martin asked for 2 or 3 more SEASONS to finish the story……HBO just gave him 6 episodes……

  62. Truelove says:

    it is NOT sarcasm it is ass kissing………..CERSIE knows ass kissing when she hears it


    Ceirci was a manipulative whore but like all whores they are always stupid.

  64. Acoustic Mario says:

    Looks like ieon bank isnt getting paid and loses the golden………………..

    Fire blast from behind.

  65. Truelove says:

    the lannisters goldmines ran out of gold 10 YEARS AGO ….they are pretending they have a lot of money …

  66. Kenneth Harkin says:

    Good thing the Lannisters has all of Kings Landing as collateral… uh oh.

  67. Gelmir Curufin says:


  68. Joe Weis says:


  69. Gabor Vadask says:

    "You mean u been funding my enemies with all this gold ??? DRAKARES " LMAO 🙂

  70. Lawrence Hawkins says:

    Off hand, I'd say the Iron Bank is ruined.

  71. cyclon74 says:

    Tywin Lannister is absolutely the bluffing type. As he tells Cersei that the gold mines of Casterly Rock had been empty for years. That's what all that "Lannisters always pay their debts" crap was about. Pure propaganda. As long as people thought they had active gold mines and believed the propaganda, the Lannisters didn't have to worry about incurring massive debt. Then, all they had to do was rob Peter to pay Paul.

  72. High Marshal Helbrecht says:

    I imagine the iron bank will just sort of fuck off to the same place that Edmure Meera Reed Howland Reed the Manderlys and Glovers fucked off too.

  73. jorge gomez says:

    If the bank has Mycroft Holmes in its payroll, everybody has a problem.

  74. Joey Boloney says:

    Ur trash bruh. U reeeachhhhed way out their with that " sarcasm" shit. The iron bank dude was givin her props because she paid off a "tremendous" debt in one drop. A debt that Tywyn would have paid off in installments. N he said hes not worried about the iron bank because he knew or , thought he'd win the war.
    Plus u cover ur tracks when u make an assumption. Trash bruh, trash. Stick to ur day job.

  75. Spartan Swerve says:

    Stop talking like a fucking wierdo, for fucks sake!

  76. Mathew Jackson says:

    Gold? debt? common sense? – there is no sense of realism in season 7 and 8. We get the dwarf cry to his sister about think of your child, poor child, don't do it, please don't do it… LAME AF. Tyrion brains has become that of a baby's…

    We all have to wait for the book to have some intelligence beyond a 5yr old. hahaha

  77. John Smith says:

    That is pretty smart and it fits, plays into Cersei's ego and low intelligence

  78. Raptor moe says:

    trump voice–> "wroooooong"

  79. paul Z says:

    Season 7: "the iron bank is a dangerous threat"

    Season 8: " WTF is the iron bank?"

  80. k b says:

    12:16 DEEPER EARS 🤣🤣🤣🤣

  81. Michael Volpe says:

    Well, looks like the Iron bank is The Bank of America of GoT. A completely failure.

  82. Steven H Wang says:

    And of course the writers never integrated this subtle story into the plot

  83. A9 says:


  84. apeturesci says:

    We can still hope that The Iron Bank will begin foreclosing the Kingdoms, right?

  85. Amanda says:

    First actually brilliant theory/piecing of information.

  86. Jaketh says:

    This didn't age well

  87. mike neun says:

    You were so fucking wrong

  88. D V says:

    Que le meta la verga en el culo y ya

  89. Nithin S Das says:

    Well Iron Bank wasn't even in the plot of S8. That was a bummer…

  90. ron says:

    this is briliant.

  91. Richard Calalang says:

    Ha ha!! You’re wrong!!

  92. XXX says:

    This prediction was wrong, the Iron bank never betrayed Cersei and kingslanding. And the Golden Company was fucked by a Dragon and then finished off by the Dothraki charging horde.

  93. Kelio Goken says:

    Aaaaaand it's never mentioned…

  94. TheAvesMYSTR says:

    Lol nah, sorry… it’s just not mentioned

  95. I AM No One says:

    Great video man

  96. Nacho Canfranc says:

    6:55 this is why i will make you master of COIN

  97. SteveoMagician says:

    Man.. you should get into reading audio books or something, Such a satisfying voice you possess.

  98. Norman Huxley says:

    The Banker worship's Money. He was not being sarcastic, it was sincere Compliment, And trust me I am fluent in sarcasm. Tywin what's a brilliant man who borrowed and paid back millions to the Iron Bank, in his life.
    I am sure at the banker had nothing but the utmost respect for him.

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