New Money (2019) – Jim Rogers Full-Length Documentary Bonus Interview

Here is a glimpse of
China today after years of lightning fast growth. Investing legend Jim Rogers
has been here all along and watched that explosive
growth happen firsthand. First came here in 1984. I was terrified because
I’d been listening to American propaganda. The Chinese were evil, vicious,
dangerous, bloodthirsty people. Didn’t take me long of traveling
around China to find out they’re disciplined, educated,
ambitious, hard-working. Jim Rogers probably
knows China more deeply than any other American today. When he came here in the early
’80s, he traveled the entire country by motorcycle– not once, but twice. He’ll never forget what he saw. I mean, it was amazing. I mean, everybody was up early
working, and they didn’t stop. They worked all
day and all night. They were saving. They were recycling everything. They weren’t doing it
to save the environment. They were doing it to
make money in those days. And I could just see
it was everywhere. I could see the
sense of education. I could see the ambition. I could see the sense
that our children should have a better life. I mean, it was just everywhere. You were a huge influence
in my investing. I don’t know where I got
this particular idea, but I’ve gotten all
of the education that you were supposed
to get in investing. And it seemed like, well, none
of this really makes any sense. Let me study who has actually
made money in investing, and let’s see how they
do it differently. And, of course, you know,
you were in Market Wizards, and I’m just trying to
gather from wherever else that I could– so what makes
people successful is different than what they
taught me in school. And, of course, your
track record at Quantum makes you arguably and
maybe even inarguably, the best investor of
our lifetimes, you know. So I was definitely
going to learn from you. And one thing that struck
me in Market Wizards that I’m thankful that
I learned was, you said, “markets can go higher than you
think and they can fall further than you can possibly imagine.” And when I started
out, I started as a broker specializing
in international stocks. And in ’93 is when
I got into it. And the markets were
just going vertical. Emerging markets
were going crazy, Hong Kong stocks were what a lot
of our customers were buying. I think in December of
’93, Hong Kong stocks were up something like 25% plus
in just the month of December of ’93. And I knew this was a melt
up, you know, this was– and I didn’t– I knew from reading what
you’d said about these things that, yes, these
things can go crazy and, yes, there is a
flip side of it as well. So early on in my
career, I experienced this sort of melt up idea. And so I was probably
22 as a broker. I’d started college at 16
and finished my MBA at 21. So at 22, I’m a broker
and I knew what I was in, and it was still really stunning
to participate in and still– my income probably fell
by 80% on the downside because we were
commission-based brokers. But it was like it was– so I want to thank you
for imparting that. And I’ve made a lot of money off
of that little piece of wisdom. And when Indonesia
is down 90% in 1998, well, if it goes down
another 50%, it’s down 95%. These things are
going to happen. And so you’ve lived
through more of these melt up– you’ve exper– you’ve
seen them come and go. So I definitely want to
talk about that a bit. Obviously, we want to talk
about China a bit, too. So I am extremely bullish
on Chinese stocks. There are three basic reasons. I’m just going to kind of get
it out up front here and then I’ll let you riff and– so my core reasons
for bullishness are, one, Chinese A-shares are just
incredibly cheap, you know, relative to however
you size it up. And they’re incredibly hated. And, meanwhile, there
are two major tailwinds. I mean, unbelievable tailwinds. And you can add to this
list if you’d like. But the first simple one is
MSCI Inclusion, you know, and this is going to
add hundreds of billions of dollars. This is going to change it
from a retail-driven market to an institutional market. And this is maybe a five
year story, or whatnot. But MSCI Inclusion is a massive
tailwind for Chinese A-shares. And then the last piece of
this is there is a crazy– we’re in a moment where
it’s China’s pension– major pension problem. In 2005, 5% of GDP
was in pensions. They’re– there are
essentially none. And, meanwhile, you
had a one child policy where instead of most
developing countries where you have two parents and
five or six kids, in China, you have two parents
and one kid and two– and so you end up
with this problem where there aren’t
enough workers to support the pensioners. And so China has to catch
up extremely quickly. And they’re doing all kinds
of almost crazy things, like authorizing up to
40% of social security. The Social Security Fund, 40% of
it can be invested in equities. And so, again, this is a
bit of a longer term story but, you know, China needs
to catch up on its pensions. It needs to get
that money invested. It needs to put it in higher
yielding things than, you know, boring bonds and such. So I think that
we’re going to have– we have incredibly cheap
market that’s hated right now. We have this MSCI tailwind. And then an even bigger
tailwind is this pension investing tailwind. So those are kind of
the two big things that I wanted to talk about. And then– but I also
wanted to go back and– it’s almost 30 years since
you took your– it’s 30 years since you first– you took
your first trip across China. You’ve taken– do you have
the record, you believe, for three cross country– Probably. Yeah. Probably. Nobody else would bother. Yeah. Well, that’s– once
you’ve done it twice, why do you need to do
it a third– well, no, it’s great that you did and
you got to see it again, and I definitely want to
hear your insights from that. And I’ll just tell one
more quick story upfront is my first trip to Shanghai
was in the early ’90s. And I stood– the most wrong
that I’ve ever been about an investment was I
stood at the office of– on the boon of Shanghai
[INAUDIBLE] [? Way ?] Finance and Trade Zone
Development Company. And they showed
me this table, it was like a double wide
trailer on the boon. And they showed me this
table that was maybe 30 feet long by 8 feet wide. It was a 3D model. Did you see it? Do you know what I mean? I’ve seen not that one,
but I’ve seen many. And, you know, there’s
no air conditioning. These guys are– it doesn’t seem
like a highfalutin operation, you know. And they say, this–
you see this table? Look across there. Of course, all there is
there’s maybe the Pearl Tower. There’s really nothing. This is going to look like
Manhattan 10 years from now. And I’ve never been more wrong
about anything in my life than– I almost started laughing when
they said that this right here is going to happen over there. And I also went a couple blocks
down just around the corner and went to the
Shanghai Stock Exchange. And in the– and
they go in, they’re, no pictures, no pictures. And I thought, wow,
that’s high security. And it turns out– you know what I’m going to say. It was that dingy hotel. It was that gross, dingy hotel. And there’s guys sleeping with
their heads on their desks. And, you know, this didn’t
look like the future. But I know that you were
one of the first people– maybe the first foreigner
to buy stocks in Shanghai. So we’ve got some
ground to cover. And I don’t really know
where you want to start, but I’d love to hear, you
know, maybe a little bit on how things have changed from, say,
your first trip across in 1988, was it? All the way across
China was for ’98, yes. Yeah. I motorcycled
around another part, but I want to go back to
something you said before. So, I’m sorry, yeah. That what the main
thing you learned was that what you
learn in school is not going to help you
in the investment world. And I frequently tell
people, don’t get an MBA, you’re wasting your
time and your money. And everything you
learn, you’ve got to unlearn If you want to
be successful in investing. But, now, back to China. First came here in 1984. I was terrified because
I’d been listening to American propaganda. The Chinese were evil, vicious,
dangerous, blood-thirsty people. Didn’t take me long of traveling
around China to find out they’re disciplined, educated,
ambitious, hard-working. Mao Tse Tung had been dead
for several years by then, and it was really
changing very quickly. I was not smart enough to
see the extent of the change, but I knew this was a
different kind of place. And I went back to New
York and explaining on TV and other places that
China, China, China. And they all said, what? Japan, Japan, Japan,
as you may remember. So I saw something was happening
here and became very bullish. I’d bought– went to the
Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1980– ’88 and started
buying a little bit. Was is the same dingy hotel? Yeah. it wasn’t even a hotel. I didn’t know it was a hotel,
I just thought it was– They converted it to the– Oh, it that what it was? I just thought it was– On the corner of
the boon, right? Yeah. No. The one I went to was not
even– no, I went before that. OK. Yeah. No, that was before– the one
I went to was before that. They all had advocacy’s. They didn’t have
computers or anything– I mean, adding
machines, much less– anyway, I started
investing back then. My real investments were
in ’99 is when I started investing in B-shares in China. But I’ve been investing since. There will be problems
along the way. But I moved to Asia
because of China. I want my children to grow up
speaking Mandarin and knowing Asia. It’s where my children
speak perfect Mandarin. And in their
lifetime, China will be the most important country. You know, they’re teen–
little kids right now. So I hope that I’m preparing
them for the 21st century. But, Steve, that
does not mean there won’t be problems in China. America became the greatest
country of the 20th century. Along the way, we had 15
depressions– with a D. We had a horrible civil war. We had massacres in the streets. We had very little rule of law. You could buy and sell con– you can still buy
and sell congressman. But in the 19th century,
they were cheap. You could buy four or five
for the price of one now. America had many
problems along the way. But we became an
astonishing success. The most successful country
in the 20th century. So don’t think that China won’t
have problems along the way. They will. But the Chinese have
a wonderful word that we don’t have in English. They’ve been around longer. It’s weiji. And weiji means catastrophe and
opportunity are the same thing. They go hand-in-hand. So when you see
catastrophe, remember weiji. And when you are panicked,
and I’m panicked, I hope we both
remember weiji and take advantage of the opportunities,
because they will be here. I mean, there are a
billion 300 million people. They save and invest. They save and invest
over 35% of their income. We in America save 2%
or 3% of our income. You know, America is the
largest debtor nation in the history of the world. China is the largest
creditor nation. I mean, there are many
things going for China. China is the only
country in history that’s had recurring
periods of greatness. China has been at the absolute
top three or four times in history. They’ve collapsed, total
disaster, three or four times in history. But they’re the
only country which after a few decades, or
centuries, at the bottom has turned around. Great Britain was great once. Rome was great once. Egypt was great once. But China’s been great
three or four times. And in my view, they’re
on the rise again. They’ve been in decline
for 300 or 400 years. Deng Xiaoping in 1978 said,
“we’ve got to change things.” You made a great
point about that once. You said– well, you had
a chapter of your book, one of them was the greatest
capitalist in the world are communists, right– Yes. –and– communist China. And you said that,
well, how long has China actually
been communist? At least 500 years. Well, I think you said
like, those 28 year– it was only 28 years. Yeah, making the point that, you
know, it only started in 1949. And so even in 1986– ’78 when he died– it was ’76 he died– that
was 27 years that they had been communist. And they didn’t like it
because the Chinese– I mean, you can go
anywhere in the world and you see Chinese capitalists. And that’s been the case
for a long, long, long time. And Mao Tse Tung actually– so China was pure communist
for nearly 27 years. Yeah. Glad you pointed it out. And Deng Xiaoping pretty
quickly started changing it. And Deng Xiaoping
said, “I don’t care if it’s a black
cat or a white cat, as long as it catches mice.” And that was his
approach to life. I mean, look out
the window, you’ll see how dramatically
it has changed and it will continue to change. You know, that is
the biggest thing I– even took– it took
getting my wife here last year for her to get over
the idea that, well, you know, but they’re communists. So– yeah, I’d love
for you to– if you have any comments on how we
can get past that objection from American investors. Because we want– California’s more
communist than China is. Massachusetts– I’m sorry, what? California is more
communist than China is. Massachusetts is more
communist than China. I mean, they call
themselves communists. And, you know, I’m
sure tomorrow they’re going to say communism
with a Chinese flavor, or socialism with
a Chinese flavor. Yeah. That’s what the term they use. I mean– Socialism with a
Massachusetts flavor. They don’t really know much
about communism in China anymore. If they ever– I guess
Mao [? restarted ?] it. But beyond that,
there’s thousands of years– you go back
to Chinese history and you see Chinese art and
literature and everything. They’re all capitalists. They’re all scrambling to make
a lot of money, and they do. You see some of these
great old murals in China. It’s amazing how many
people are working and struggling to get rich. And a lot of them are. So, you know, you
know all of these– all the objections. One of the common
things you hear about is, well, China’s debt. And you just said
China’s a huge creditor. So how do we explain that to the
man on the street in America? Well, I’ve just finished with
the whole thing, your wife and communists. Yeah, absolutely. Yes, they call
themselves communists, but they are probably the
best capitalists in the world in 2018, 2019, going forward. You saw that in
1990, though, right? Yeah. So if– yeah. You drive across– in the ’80s
I drove across China three times on my motorcycle. And, yeah, I could see everybody
was working their head off. It was shocking. I had never seen
anything like it. They would get up early,
they’d work all day long making not that much money. But they wanted– they
wanted to make money. They were disciplining their
children in those days. They were educating their
children in those days. You had a crazy story
about passing a chapel. Oh, yeah, that. Well, that– they’re
Christians, there are lots of Christians
in China it turns out. And I think that most
people wouldn’t believe. I don’t know if you can give
a little back story on that. Well, that was in 1999. My wife and I were
driving around the world, and we were driving down the
one highway at that time. And we saw– I mean, we kept driving and we
both said, was that a church? And we saw huge– three
huge steeples with crosses. Yeah. And we said, that was a church. So we turned around
and went back. And it was a very large church. And we went inside and they
were singing Christmas carols, to our astonishment. I mean, there were all
these Chinese singing them in English– I mean in Chinese, but we
could hear from the tunes what they were singing. And they said, yeah,
we’ve been Christians here for a long time. Mao Tse Tung
couldn’t destroy us. And the church
that– the preacher is paid by the government. That’s crazy. Through– the government
pays the preacher in a communist country,
in an atheist country. And there are lots of churches. There are lots of mosque. If you go further to the west,
you’ll see a lot of mosque. Same kind of thing. I mean, there’s a
lot of religion here. There always has been
for a long, long time, and there certainly is now. And there’s capitalism. But they call themselves comm–
you tell your wife that they call themselves communists
but they’re among the best capitalists, and there are
many religious people in– people are not religion but
they’re not religious people in America and Europe, as well. But there are many
religious people in China and there are lots
of capitalists in China, lots of capitalists. Now, as far as the
past and the future, I said Deng Xiaoping
started opening it up. And they have been
opening it up ever since. Yes, there’s certainly a lot
of planned central economy in China. But even those guys are
all trying to make money. I mean, it’s a different world,
whether we like it or not. And I know many people in
America say, communist, well, they call themselves communists. But, you know, Italy calls
itself a Catholic nation. Well, I don’t think it is a very
Catholic nation, for instance. So there have been many
things like that going on. And there is all this stuff
about communist dictatorship. There is the Communist Party. It is a one party state. But Japan was a one party state. Mexico was a one
party state giving lots of their great growth. So, yes, this is true. But it has been changing a lot. When I first came
here in 1984, there was one newspaper, one
TV, one way of thinking. The Communist Party
acknowledges that there are thousands of demonstrations
every year in China now. People demanding their rights. Many newspapers, many
media outlets, the internet is everywhere. It’s overly controlled, if
you ask me, but it’s there. And everybody makes protest, and
if they don’t like something, the internet goes wild in China. I mean, it’s not the
Netherlands or something. It’s not America. But it’s certainly much more
open than people seem to think. Well, so what I’ve seen
is another big objection that you get in the states
is, oh, but it’s all fake. They’re only showing you
what they want you to see. You’ve heard this, too, right? So– and, oh, what
about the ghost cities? What about the fake
growth numbers? Meanwhile, if you’ve been
here in any five year stretch over the last 30 years,
you know the growth is real, you know. So– but how– what can you do– hopefully, we’re going to reach
people that don’t know anything about China. So what can we tell
them about these ideals? Well, first, when you say
they’re just showing you what they want you
to see, may I suggest you get on your motorcycle
and drive across China? Yeah. Nobody’s showing you what
they want you to see. You’re on your motorcycle. You’re heading
out into the wild. Even in the cities, you’re
free to go wherever you want. No, I know. You can do anything you want. Yes, you can go to the bar. You can go everywhere. Lots of bars now,
lots of discos. They do all sorts of things. So that is no more true of
China than it is true of– I don’t know who they
is, actually, that’s– anyway. Well, there’s no more true of
the US than it is of China. People can say that about
the US and other places as far as the
numbers being fake. Now, it’s like you, I don’t
trust any government numbers– America, Germany, anybody. We’ve all been caught
lying about our numbers, and I’m sure that the
Chinese numbers are– some of them are made up, too– India, especially. But it doesn’t matter
because, like you said, I’ve been coming
here for 34 years. You walk down the street. You go to a different
city and you say, oh, my god, last time
I was here five years ago, none of this was here. And it all happened, and it
happens very quickly in China. Partly, because it’s a
one party state and partly they get it done. In America, it
takes you years just to build a new church or a new
hospital or a new school even. And this is stuff that
people supposedly support. So I know you’re a free market
guy, Jim, so how do you– how do you balance this supposed
communism and the direction– the directed economy, the
directed construction and such with your free market ideas? Well, yes, listen. I would abolish
most governments, there’s no question
about that, and certainly all the rules and regulations
for most governments. But there is a difference
in a successful government and an unsuccessful government. That’s one of the
distinctions in China. They get it done. Whether their methods are
right or not, I don’t– I live in Singapore. You know, the guy
who built Singapore, I don’t approve of some
of the things he did. But Singapore has been an
astonishing successful country. You go to the Congo, I mean,
he was a horrible dictator. He didn’t get anything
to show for it. You go to Singapore, it is
an astonishing success story. You come to China, it’s an
astonishing success story. So what is it that you saw
like– when you were making your travels, you said, well,
Central Asia, well, this is never going to work. Well, China, this is
definitely going to work. I mean, what is it
that you look for? Mainly, I saw the work ethic. It was a work ethic. I mean, you– and I was
driving on my motorcycle across the country and
around the country, so I obviously saw it, and
we got up early every morning to go. I mean, it was amazing. I mean, everybody was up early
working, and they didn’t stop. They worked all
day and all night. They were saving. They were recycling everything. And it was ama– they recycled
because they needed it. They weren’t doing it to
try to save the environment. They were doing it to
make money in those days. And I could just see it
was– it was everywhere. And I could see the
sense of education. I could see the ambition. I could see the sense
that our children should have a better life. I mean, it was just everywhere. And I don’t think– I don’t think I’ve ever seen
it in any other country as powerful as I saw it driving
across China on my motorcycle and then in the car. I drove across China twice on
a motorcycle, once in a car, and I drove around parts of
China on a motorcycle once. And you couldn’t
help but see it. It was just the
most amazing thing. And I’ve motorcycled
around the world twice. I have never seen it
in any other country. Wow. This sort of drive,
this ambition. As I said before, China
is the only country that’s been great three or four times. And when Deng Xiaoping said
let’s try something new, he knew what he was doing. He opened up the animal
instincts in China and as I said, go back and
look at old Chinese art. They’re all working. It’s astonishing how
they’re all working. So– and you’ve seen that– I don’t know if you can talk
a bit about the infrastructure changes that you’ve
seen or the technology changes that you’ve seen. You drove on roads
that didn’t exist. You drove through deserts. You drove over
mountains, literally. And now we’re at a place where,
arguably, the infrastructure is better than it is at home. You know, I feel
like I shouldn’t say that too loud but– No. –would you agree? You fly– you fly into
JFK, you immediately know you’re in a
third world airport. I mean, if you’ve
seen the world, you know you’re in a
third world airport. You got to– after you
get through immigration, eventually, the long queue is
you get in a third world taxi. You go on a third world highway. You drove to a third
world five star hotel. I mean, you– I mean– Well, Jim, that’s the
greatest city in the world. I know it is and I loved it. I lived there for decades. But you come to Beijing
and Shanghai and you actually, to me, it’s a– if I were to film
a movie that was filmed 30 years in the future,
I would do it in Pudong. Well, of course, you would. And, you know, I’m
an American citizen and you’re an American citizen. I don’t like saying
these things. I don’t like saying that JFK
is a third world airport. But I’ve got to face reality. I mean, I can come to Shanghai
or Beijing and the airport and see the difference. You can take the train. You’re treated civilly as
you go through security. And you get through
very quickly. And you can take the train. And you will– how
did these guys do it? How do they have nice,
clean, fast trains that work? Take the New Haven railroad,
whatever it’s called now, I mean, again, I don’t
like saying any of this. Right. Does not make me
happy saying this, but I have to deal with facts. Because if you’re an investor,
if you don’t deal in facts, you’re not going to be
an investor very long. You’re going to be bankrupt. So that’s one of the big ideas
for me of this documentary is that whenever you see
a gap between reality– perception and reality,
there’s probably money to be made as perception
converges towards reality. And I’ve never seen,
especially on $1 scale, but I’ve never seen such a gap
between perception and reality as the American
perception of China as the place where
your cheap t-shirts and your cheap
electronics come from. Meanwhile, an apartment
in Beijing or Shanghai is a couple of million bucks. I can’t afford to live here. So the perception and
the reality are extreme, would you agree? I’m just a little– I’m a little startled that it is
still the case, that they still think this is the home of
dictatorship, communist, and cheap t-shirts. Yeah, it is. Oh, my gosh, there’s some
of the highest class quality products in this country. I mean, some of them– You can’t have million
dollar apartments and make cheap
t-shirts profitably. It can’t be done. Well, it’s not just that. It’s the restaurants,
the shops– I mean, everybody’s here. Every exclusive high-end
product you can think of. I’m not going to name the name. Right outside is what,
was it Tiffany’s? Every name brand you can– Oh, god, no, I know
they’re all here. There’s Ferrari’s, there’s a
huge Tesla charging station. You know, it’s more
high-end right here than anywhere I’m
aware of in the states. But, I mean, even America– I mean, General Motors
makes more in China than it makes in America. There are many– Apple
makes more in China than it makes in America. There are many major
American companies. They know. General Motors knows that
China is a gigantic market for high quality products. You know, when I came here a few
years ago and we chat, it was– it was very clear the impact
that we chat was having on the people. And I– I immediately went
home and actually gave a speech that I said, Tencent will
become the world’s largest company someday. Because– Why didn’t you send me an email? Sorry. We got a good entry
point now, by the way. But, I mean– so, you know,
we’re talking about the future. And really China has
definitely passed the US on technology– the
integration of technology in every aspect of
everyone’s lives here. Do you have any comments
or thoughts on that? Well, yeah, that is a
little bit embarrassing. Because when I go to the
states, people are always saying we’re the technological
leaders in the world. And we do have
Facebook, if that’s technological leadership. But I see what’s
happening in China, and I see what’s happening
in other countries. The other day I was
in Beijing and I was trying to buy an ice cream. There’s a 19-year-old
[INAUDIBLE] young woman and she couldn’t sell me an
ice cream because I had money. I had renminbi. She couldn’t take money. You have to do it on your phone. Yeah. Everything is on– I wish
I were buying a Mercedes, because she gave me the
ice cream in the end. Oh, really. She felt so sorry for this poor
foreigner who couldn’t– all he had was money. No. I mean, many things in
China are ahead of the US. Again, I don’t like
saying it, Steve. I’m an American. My kids are Americans. My wife is American. But I have to face reality. And the Chinese are
10 cent Alibaba. I mean, you know the
names as well as I do. These not little guys in
the backyard somewhere. These are major,
gigantic powerhouses built on technology. Yeah. It was a real eye opening
when Uber came and spent a fortune trying to
buy its way into China and getting drivers and
getting all the licenses. But the problem
for Uber was they didn’t have a button on WeChat. [? Didi ?] already
had the button on WeChat and Uber failed. Spent a fortune, but
they couldn’t break– it could– because they
didn’t have a button. I have a button now. I can buy ice cream now. There you go. Even I am becoming
technologically a little bit advanced. So up to present– so I gave you sort of
the three pieces that I– so China, as you know, has
had in the last decade– or in the last dozen
years now, there have been three separate
sort of melt ups. There have been three
separate 100% plus moves, including one 500% plus move
in the entire stock market. All those moves were
in less than 18 months. So sort of– a prediction
that I have out there now is that sometime in
the next five years, Chinese stocks will
soar triple digits again within an 18 month period. It’s sort of the virtuous–
you know how it goes. It’s a retail driven
market right now. Once that reflexive thing starts
happening, it keeps going. And I think it’s a
conservative thing to say, believe it or
not, that I think– I personally think would
actually be a larger move. I think that we have these
incredible tailwinds that will make it one of the
great moves of our lifetimes. And that’s another reason I
want to do this documentary. So I wanted to get your thoughts
on the present and these ideas. One thing I would add to your– I mean, it’s– you’re smarter
than I am but, you know, fewer than 10– fewer than nine– Can you say that again,
a little louder, please? You’re smarter than I am. You are. You know it as well as I do. Fewer than I think
it’s 9% of Chinese have investment accounts,
brokerage accounts. Well, in America, at least
directly or indirectly it’s over 50%. So investing in China is
pretty much unknown still. And there’re a billion
300 million of them. And as more and
more of them learn about investing in stocks,
whether they’re forced to or do it because they
see it on the internet or whatever, that is gigantic,
to go from 9% to 18%. Which I’m at a billion
300 million people. Now, that’s a lot
of money coming into the markets in the future,
and it’s going to happen. It’s certainly going to
happen one way or the other. So there are other possibly
bullish things going on here. And they are developing
investment account– pension accounts, as you
know, as you pointed out. So there are many
good things happening. But, Steve, don’t remember– I mean, don’t forget that
there will be bear markets. There will be problems. I remember that move
when it went up 500%. But, you know what– The other side of– The next– yeah, I
was going to say. It’s like every other
bubble or semi bubble. It collapsed. Yeah, well– It collapses. But that’s good. That’s good. You want bubbles to
collapse, because then it cleans out the market
and you can start out with another bubble. That’s right. You can have another big move. So, sure, China’s
got right now– we mentioned debt and
then got away from it. But China does
have internal debt. The largest creditor nation
with a huge foreign currency reserves. But in China, some
companies have built up debt, and those companies
which deal with the West, when the West has
problems, China is going to have problems, too. Especially, if you
owe your customers. When your customers have
problems, you have problems. Some of those Chinese
companies now have debt, and there’re going
to be bankruptcies. Now, it’s going to shock a
lot of people, including me. And I just told you
it’s going to happen. I’m going to be
shocked and scared. But Beijing has said that
when people get in trouble, we’re going to let
them go bankrupt. I wish in Washington– Right. –I wish in London they
would say that, too. But I don’t know if the Chinese
mean it, but they have said it. Now, they haven’t been
capitalists very long this time around, so I don’t
know if they mean it or not. But they say we’re going
to let them go bankrupt. It’ll be good for China. It’ll be good for the
world if they do it. So there’re going
to be problems. There’s a lot of– in China right now, this
peer-to-peer lending has gotten to be very, very big. I can’t remember,
a few years ago when all these young people
sitting at their computers selling loans to each other– Right. [? –lots of ?] people. And I said, how can that be? A game became a huge business,
and like I said, how can it be? Well, problems are developing
and there will be more. But we had many– we had
15 depressions in the US. And when I was
learning, you know, someone told me that they
can fall further than you can possibly imagine, right? And they can go up more. You sell them short one day
and you’ll find out they go up much more than
you can imagine. That’s the best way. I remember when I was first
went into the business, I said to an old guy– so
I go to a business school and he said, forget
business school. If you come down here and
sell soybeans short once, you learn more than you’ll
ever learn in business school. And he was right. I have sold short
enough times to see things go up higher than
anybody, including me, can imagine. So, yes, it’s a good lesson. You paid your tuition
that way, right? I’ve paid many– I
paid for many MBAs the hard way by shorting
the wrong things. Or not shorting the wrong things
but by the timing, the timing. Anyway, so Chinese
will have problems, but they’ve got a very high
savings rate, much higher than we do in the US. The government has
huge gigantic reserves. America is the
largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Steve, we’re not the largest
debtor nation in the world. We’re the largest debtor nation
in the history of the world. Occasionally, I see– or I’m
on TV or something and people with the quote about
American exceptionalism. I say, yeah, we’re the largest
debtor nation in the world. That’s exceptional. That’s right. A couple hundred thousand
dollars a resident. So that’s hard to compare. So we had problems, and the
Chinese will have problems. But many companies
which don’t have debt, they have a high savings rate. The government has
huge, huge reserves. And the government
has said, we’re not going to prop up failure. If people fail, we’re
going to let them– you know, the way this
system is supposed to work, people get into trouble. Well, competent people
come, take over the assets, reorganize, and start over
from a better, stronger base. In America what we do is
when people get into trouble, the government takes some money
away from the competent people, gives it to the incompetent
people and said, now you compete with
the competent people with their money. Oh, my gosh. Well, I hope China
doesn’t do that. But don’t think they
won’t have problems. But that’s the way
the world works. Every individual or family or
company or country that rises has problems along the way. We certainly did. They will, too. So my simple thesis
is that the huge pile of money that’s going
to flow in is all going to flow into the
top 5% of A-shares, because you’ve got, essentially,
global fund managers who don’t know anything
about Chinese A-shares. They’re going to be
benchmarking to MSCI. The only ones that
can buy are the top. It’s like India where you
have this multi-tiered– the blue chips
are valued at this and everything else,
the other 98% of stocks, are valued at this. And no one knows anything
about those other 98%. So– and then the Chinese
pension funds, of course, all they’re going to buy is–
if you look at the Japanese with 75% plus of the– Japanese government has 75%
plus of the ETF market in Japan, right? I know. And so that means they
own all the blue chips. So I think it’s
pretty simple if these are the two main tailwinds,
that the majority of new money that’s coming in– we’re talking hundreds
of billions of dollars, possibly a trillion dollars
when you add the two together over five years, it’s all
going to go into that top 5% of Chinese blue chips. That is the thesis which has
been demonstrated many times in history. I’ve been– So tell me where I’m wrong,
or tell me what you think. I’ve been investing longer than
you, Steve, and whenever I– especially in the old days when
I would go into a new market, I would buy the biggest 10
companies on the exchange. Because I knew that when
the foreigners came, they would but them, too. They have to buy them. You know, you can’t be a big
hit mutual fund in America and go ahead and buy stock
in Joe’s Liquor Store. Right. You’ve got to buy the big 10
or the big 20, whatever it is. So, no, it’s a thesis which
has been proven many times. Eventually, of
course– eventually, when everybody learning
about the markets and they look for
other things, too. But in the beginning, you
know, it’s only the major– I won’t even call
them blue chips– the big names, the big liquid
stocks that people will buy. Not even because
they’re the best but because they are the
largest in the index. And it doesn’t matter
whether it’s right or wrong, that’s what they do. They always have and
they always will. So you’re right. That’s very insightful. Listen, Steve, I’m
more bullish than you. When you were– You’re here. When you were in
college, you know, I was already here riding
around on my motorcycle starting to invest here and tried to
tell people about China, China, China. All I want to do is just
temper it by saying, there will be bear markets. There will be companies
going bankrupt. There will be mistakes. But I moved to Asia because
what I see happening here, and I’ve seen it for
over 30 years now. And I know there
will be problems, but I’m looking
for the problems. Because when they
happen, I hope I’m smart enough to start buying. I hope I’m starting– smart
enough to do something. So– And brave enough. And brave enough. But when Chinese companies
start going bankrupt, and if Beijing lets
them go bankrupt, everybody’s going to be
in a panic, including me. I hope I’m smart enough and
brave enough to do something. I would say it was a
great part of my own– it was late 2008 and I said, OK. Either it’s the
end of the world, or I need to back up the truck. And it’s probably not
the end of the world, so it was the only
time in my life not only did I take all of my
available financial net worth, I took a home equity
loan and bought stocks. And I was a couple months
early, but I’m still long. And it’s been a great treat. I know how to be early. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, I’m sure you do. I did the same in the real
estate market in 2011. It was– and it was– it was a great part of
education to not only know that these busts
happen, but that I have to take advantage of it. I have to step– now is the–
when everybody is panicking, now is the moment to step up. And it’s one thing to think it,
and that’s early on, but then when you’re actually
like, you know– what is Soros’s
quote about, don’t– it takes courage
to be a pig, right? So– so, yeah, that’s– that’s what I did in ’08
and 2011 in real estate in the states. Well, for what it’s
worth, I frequently speak at universities. And they always say,
what should we study? And I say, you should study
history and philosophy. They say, no, no,
we want to be rich. Yeah. And I say, you want to be
rich, you study history. You learn that all this
has happened before and it’s going to happen
again and that things change. But it changes, you take
advantage of the change. The reason I bring that up
is because you mentioned that you knew by 2008, you knew
this had all happened before. Well, it’s one thing to know,
it’s another thing to be a pig. You have to be brave. That’s what I said before. I hope I’m brave enough when
I see bankruptcies in China. Yeah. I hope I’m brave enough
to do something and have studied enough history
that I’m prepared for it. So speaking of the
idea of a melt up, you have recognized
them as much as anyone– you know, you’ve had
a long career at this. You’ve been on the lookout for
these types of opportunities. And here we are nine years
into a bull market, 10 years into a bull market in the US. So, you know, we can
come back to China if there’s more but I’d love to
talk a bit about the US and– yeah. Well, I was just
going to say, US to– may be a transition. The US is making all time highs. Chinese market is down 60%. Now, I don’t know if they
taught you at school, but you’re supposed to
buy low and sell high. Right. So for me in 2018,
something that’s down 60% might be more attractive than
something making all time highs. Doesn’t necessarily mean
that you have to buy, but I’d rather start in a
market that’s down than one that’s going through the roof. But like I said,
you were the one that taught me that
market can go– markets can go higher than
you could possibly imagine. And to me, this does not
feel like real estate in 2006 in the states. This does not feel like
the NASDAQ in 1999. The US stock market,
this– this has been the most skeptical
bull market I’ve ever seen. So we’re nine years into this
and it’s the most hated bull market. It’s the least participated. And in my opinion– and so many great bull
markets, but not all, end in sort of a melt up phase. And this is a great bull
market, at least in duration. But we really haven’t
seen it– you look at– you know, I don’t have
to tell you these things. But I expect that
we will see much greater public participation
in this bull market. I expect– I strongly
believe that we will see a melt up phase. Now, it can be
completely irrational. You know that’s how
these things go. Has to be. And these– and that’s
how these things work. So I would love to get
your input on melt ups that you’ve experienced. What they look like, what
it feels like at the top, does this current
market resemble– Steve, they’re all the same. If you go back and
read your history, back to our earlier
conversation, they’re all the same. People say it’s
different this time. They talk about the new
money, whatever it is. The foreign money that’s
coming in for whatever reason. There’s always some new money. There’s always new technology. I mean, now, in 1999 the
Wall Street Journal started writing about the new economy–
capital N, capital E. I mean, they literally
capitalized New Economy in the Wall Street Journal in
19– they don’t do it anymore. But I’m– no, they all– you go back and read about every
bull market, ’29, any of them. They all say the same thing. The same thing hap–
people quit their jobs to go to become
full time investors. College students decide
this is the future. I mean, it becomes everywhere. If you walk down
Madison Avenue, their TV is with the stock market. If you– it doesn’t
matter whether it’s Frankfurt or New
York, or wherever it is, it all look the same. So just go back and
read a few bubbles. Read about any bubble you want. And they’re all
exactly the same. They say the same thing. They act the same way. People do the same,
take the same actions. You go to the dentist
and he doesn’t want to talk about your teeth. He wants to talk about stocks. He wants to know hot tips,
especially, if he finds out– and not only with the
dentist, his receptionist also wants to talk about stocks. So you know this ain’t
the beg– this ain’t the beginning of a bull market. We might be getting to the end. I thought in 1999,
all of my friends were getting rich
getting stock options, and I was the idiot sitting
there writing about the stock market and not participating. And why am– what am
I doing wrong here? And then, of course,
you know, all of them ended up with nothing
in the end there. And then in 2006, I remember we
had a plumber come to the house and he’s like, I
don’t know why I’m making so much money
buying a house, painting it and flipping it. I don’t even know what–
now, plumbers actually make a decent living
in the states, right? And he said, I
don’t even know why I’m bothering doing this
anymore because I’m making so much money flipping houses. And it’s kind of like, ding,
there’s your– there’s your– Yeah. There’s your bell at the top. And I bring up these things
because I don’t see any friends or, you know, college
graduates, you know, choosing the stock market as
the be all, end all for them. I don’t see the plumber
quitting his job to trade stocks or to buy houses. So are you seeing these– so
you’ve described these signs and, yes, we see them. And– but I feel like– it’s arguable, but I’d
be interested to see– Well– –do you believe we’re
seeing those signs now? It’s been a long time since we
had a wild bubble in the US. 1999 the NASDAQ but
doubled, tripled in three months, or six months,
whatever the numbers are. In six months, yeah. Unbelievable numbers
that happened. It happened in ’68. I worked for Wall– for a guy named Roy Neuberger
who founded Neuberger Berman, and he thought he had lost it. Because all these guys around
you were making so much money. But he said to me, when
the bear market comes, they’re going to lose
all everything they’ve made because they don’t
know why they made it. And he sure– he was right. Now, you’re saying you
don’t see those days yet and maybe they’re not. I mean, I’m not in the US
very much so I don’t really know the sort of mood. But if you’re right, first of
all, it usually is in not– it’s usually in a
handful of stocks. When I say a handful, 50 or 100. It’s not– Right. –it’s not the whole
market that goes up. So you’ve got to be at the
right place at the right time. And please tell
me what they are. Tell me those stocks. But also, why not– if it’s going to
happen, why wouldn’t you buy Japan or China? These markets are very
depressed compared– and they have some
great names, and there’s lots of liquidity and lots
of people yet to buy them. So if the US market is going to
skyrocket into a bubble, which it might very well. No, I see exactly
what you’re saying. But if that happens,
wouldn’t Japan go up more? Wouldn’t China go up more? I’m asking. I don’t know. I own them both and so– Oh. OK. OK. OK. You know, we’ve been you’re
here talking about China. Obviously, you know how
bullish I am on China. But I get so much
pushback on the idea that we could actually
have this melt up. I think it’s great that I get
so much pushback, because it tells me that the
top is not here yet. And what I did in 1999, Porter
and I together, actually, we didn’t– we accidentally were
incredibly successful because we owned a
basket of tech stocks and we had 25%
trailing stops on them. And nothing turned back
in those final six months. It was just a vertical ride. And then we basically got
stopped out of everything, essentially, you know, by
the April issue of our letter that we were publishing. Everything was
gone and we thought we were doing a
disservice to our readers. We pocketed 900% plus
profits in some major names. But now we felt like
we’d done the wrong thing because we’re out. And it was– it was
no– it was no skill. We just happened to cut
our losses at a good time. Wait six months later. Oh, yeah, yeah. Well, I know the
rest of the story. Yeah. No, I mean– and so it was– so what I will be doing
is continuing to be long. The narrow universe that
has traditionally done well at these times which, you
know, even in ’68 it’s the tech names, it’s Ross Perot, it’s– so– and then we’ll
cut our losses. We’ll use a trailing stop and– of course, I could
be wrong, you know. But– But you have your trailing
stops to get you out– Right. –if you’re wrong. Yeah. Absolutely. I presume. And so any trade that you want
to do you want to have your, you know– I don’t have to teach
you this, right? But you want your upside to
be greater than your downside. You have a smaller trailing
stop and significant upside. And so– and looking back,
it’s pretty extraordinary how often the tech and biotech
are that narrow sector. It’s always the new era. It’s always– nobody goes out
and says, let’s buy railroads and drive them up
30% a day, you know. Oh, and by the way,
that’s another– Well, you’re not going to put
a crazy multiple on railroads, either, right? So it’s something– That’s another sign, though,
when you see in the market that stocks are going up
huge percentages every day. Not every month but every day. I mean, you should
say, how can that be? But it happens in those phases. And that’s when you
know you’re in a bubble. So how did you feel in 1999? How did you– did you just
avoid the thing entirely? You knew it was ridiculous? Or was it the Soros’
quotes– or I keep bringing up these Soros quotes. But was it the Soros
quote where, look, you need to know what’s
going to bite you. You want to know what
the trouble is as you’re making money on the web. Well, in 1999, I was
going around the world– Yes, you were. That’s right. –in a car– You were preoccupied. –at that time. No, no, but I was shorting. I was shorting Amazon. I remember it very well. Shorting a few of
these crazy names. And it was not fun. No, no, no, I was even out
there in the wilds of Siberia, wherever, I was
getting the notices that these stocks skyrocketing
and going through the roof. And it was not fun. It was painful. Fortunately, I had some longs. And fortunately it
eventually collapsed. They totally collapsed. I didn’t have trailing
stops on my shorts. I should have at times. But in the end, I
made a lot of money. But– How about John Templeton,
by the way, going short, you know, the top 100
names, essentially, exactly the right time and
holding them all the way down? Well– Kind of a good swan song for– There’s another guy
smarter than me, you know. No no, he– it can be done. The problem is, Steve,
you hear the success– I’m playing with fire, I know. You hear the success stories. You don’t hear, in your case,
if it’s not a success story, we’ll hear about it because
you’re broadcasting it. Well, how many of my
subscribers are actually going to cut their
loss after they’ve made 1,200% in JDS Uniphase
and it’s fallen 25% and we told them to take
their 900% gain, or whatever. How many of them– they’ve fallen in
love with this. How many of them are actually
going to listen when you say, oh, now’s the day
to pull the plug? Well, I don’t know
your subscribers. But I hope they all do. I hope they all do. I mean, I– Animal instincts are strong,
you know this, right? But if you can– back to your comment about
history and my comment. If you just read the history,
you know you’ve got to do it. You know you’ve got to do it. But, Jim, the stock’s never
treated me bad before. I know. That’s what we get. I get you. I’ve been to the beach
trying to pick up girls, too, and they all treat
me badly, you know, no matter how
smart I think I am. They always treat me badly. So I would– I’ve read my history. I know what will happen. When the bear market comes
and when the turn comes, it doesn’t matter
how smart you are. It doesn’t matter how
wonderful those companies are. It doesn’t matter how
brilliant the management is and the products. You’re going to lose your shirt. So after this melt
up, though, I think we both agree on sort of the
meltdown that could follow. I don’t want to put words
in your mouth, but– I’ll put them in your mouth. OK. The next bear market is going
to be the worst in my lifetime. And I’m older than you, Steve. You know, especially,
if it happens that way you happen–
you say it’s going to, and it’s likely to certainly
possible that it will. It’s going to be horrendous. Going to be a nightmare. The last bear market in 2008
was caused by too much debt. I mean, the debt has skyrocketed
everywhere, even in China. In 2008, China had a lot of
money saved for a rainy day. It started raining. They started spending it. Helped save the world. But now China had internal debt. Now, even China has debt. So the next bear market,
who’s going to save us? Yeah. So– Who is going to save– I mean, do you have
any suggestions as who might save us? No, I don’t. The Federal Reserve? Inflation, that’s it. The Central Bank? Inflation is– They got to print
as much as they can. They got to do
everything they can. So what’s the worst
US bear market that you’ve experienced,
’73, ’74, ’87? Well, I don’t know. I’d have to go back and– What felt the worst? I’m sure the numbers are
pretty easy to measure. What felt the worst? ’73, 74 was slow. Well, I actually made a
lot of money in ’73, ’74. OK. Yes, you did. So we’re shorting that. That didn’t feel too bad at all. The nifty ’50, that felt– I was shocked at how excited I
was, and how much fun that was. At first, it wasn’t. Same thing happened. We shorted them, and then they
kept going higher and higher. But then, my god, all of a
sudden, they started going down and they didn’t stop. Yeah. JPMorgan, who bought
every share of Avon it could, and Polaroid,
and the rest of them, didn’t have anymore money
and they started going down, and they just kept going. Anyway, that one was a
nice fun– but they all– I mean, a lot of
them have been fun. In ’87, I was short the market. That was fun. On my– October the
19th was my birthday. It was the best birthday
I ever had in my life. So, let’s see, ’99 I remember. Fortunately, I was short stocks. 2008, I was short. So what’s a bad bull market– what’s a bad bear
market feel like? I mean– Well, it feels wonderful
if you’re short. This is 9 years– and
you think about this, this is a nine year bull market. But the entire decade of the
’90s was a great boom, too. So, you know– so most investors
have not lived through– I mean, obviously,
the NASDAQ bust, but that was a relatively
narrow universe of stocks, like we talked about. So most living investors have
not experienced a legit bear market. Well, if you’re long and– So what are they in for? Again, for bankruptcy. I mean, they’re going
to lose everything. They’re going to lose it
all because anybody who is– even if you’re not
leveraged, the stocks in bear market, Steve,
stocks go down much more than anybody can believe. Like in bull markets
they go up more. I mean, you cannot believe. You say the stock is down 80%. You know what? If it goes to 10, it’s down 90%. Hey, you know, and you can
lose– it can go down 90%. You lost an additional 50%. Yeah, you lost– you lost your– amazing amounts of money. And it can happen. And people say they
can’t go down anymore. It’s already down 90%. It can go down. It can go down another 90%. From where– if a stock goes
from 100 to 10, that’s 90%. It can go to 2. It can go to 1. And often it does. So you have to be– and it happens in bear markets. And people think it
cannot happen but it does. I mean, if you go back and
read your history– don’t listen to me. Go back and read your
history and you will see. So where would people hide? Well, you can sell
short, but most people are not going to do that
because they don’t know how or don’t think of it
and think it’s not good. They can go into cash. But most people,
as you said, they won’t do it because they’ve
been making so much money. The way to hide, though, is
to sell short, go into cash, go to another country. But in bear markets,
everybody’s suffering. Become a farmer. I mean, it depends
on your own skills. The best thing I can tell
you is only do what you know. Only invest in what you know. And then you’ll probably get
out of some of these things. If you’re long Alibaba, and
you know what you’re doing, then you’ll know what to
do if it starts cracking. But if you’re long Alibaba
because somebody said to you– Right. –there’s this company
called Alibaba, ba, ba, ba, and you don’t know
why you bought it. You know it’s gone up a lot. You made a lot of money,
but you don’t know why– you don’t know what to do. That’s why you won’t sell it. So my advice is only
invest in what you yourself know a lot about. Because then you’ll
know when to sell. Don’t listen to me. if I sell it, I’m not
going to call you and say, you know that stock
I told you to buy? I sold it. And you’re not going to know
what to do unless you only invest in what [? yourself ?]
[? know. ?] Nobody wants to do it. They all want a hot tip. So here’s a challenging
question for you. We’ve been talking about the
long-term opportunity in China, and China, historically,
has been uncorrelated. Not negative– not
negatively correlated but uncorrelated to US stocks,
historically, A-shares. And– but if we have this great
meltdown in the US last years last longer than
people can imagine, goes further than
people could imagine, what happens to China– to China A-shares? Not Tencent and Alibaba, but
what happens to China A-shares? Well, first your comment
about correlation. They’ve only had a
market for 28 years. I mean, it’s not– so there’s
some long historical period here to look at. But China is now the second
largest economy in the world. They have this very
large stock market. And when everybody
else is losing money, I assure you people are going
to sell their Chinese shares. And people are
going to be afraid. And even you, at one point,
will sell your Chinese shares because you’ll hit your stops– Right. –if nothing else. The next bear market
is going to be the worst in my lifetime,
which means it’s going to be pretty horrendous. And everybody will be affected. Everybody will be affected. You know, the MSCI
indexes will all go down. And even if they
may, if you say, yeah, but they have
to buy Chinese shares. OK, they do. Well, yes. But they’ll all go down. Yeah. That’s because the
holders of those funds will be withdrawing their
money, and those folks will have to withdraw all the
money from the Chinese markets. Which leads me to ETFs. I don’t know if you
want to go there. But we all own
ETFs now, including me, because it’s so easy, lazy. And everybody– so when– Now, you actually
literally own ETFs, right, with the new fund
you’ve started? Yeah, yeah. But that’s another story, right? Yes, that’s another story. But when the bear
market comes, we’re all going to sell
the same thing. So the ETF stocks
are going to go down more than everything else. The stocks that aren’t
in the ETFs, that’s the place to be, because
nobody owns them, so nobody can dump them. The ETF stocks are going to get
killed in the next bear market. Well, it’s the
same theory that I had on the upside in China
in reverse on the downside. Everybody’s going to
be buying the top 5%, and that’s what everybody
will be selling here. But that will be true
everywhere in the world. Don’t pick on China. It’ll be true in Spain. It’ll be true
everywhere in the world. When the bear market
comes, we all– we all own many of
the same stocks, especially now because of ETFs. And it’s going to be horrendous. So is there anywhere– is there anywhere in any asset
class that you’re excited about? There are many
commodities right now that are incredibly
hated reaching levels we’ve never seen. Well– The traders, you know– Yes, sugar. You should– let me see
if I have my sugar here. Give you a sugar packet there? Get yourself some sugar. If they’re serving coffee later. North Korea, there’s no
market in North Korea yet. Russia’s really hated right now. That’s the thing. It’s always at five
times earnings. I mean, when do you buy Russia? Well, I thought we were
talking about things that won’t get hurt so badly. Right. Russia will be– There’s no money
to leave, right? Yes, that’s right. That’s what I mean
it’s hated right now. So if you’re in
markets like that, you probably won’t lose as much. But the place to be when
a gigantic world bear market comes is not in stocks. Because they all go down. There are always
some they go up, even in the ’30s
some stocks went up. Not many, but some
stocks went up. And I’m certainly not smart
enough to own those stocks. The place to be in a bear
market is somewhere else. Farming, you know,
doing something that nobody else is doing. I’m certainly a
fan of your stuff and what you’re
doing, all of you. Porter I’ve known a long time. No, no, I’m keen– I’m keen on most of you. Keep it up. My suggestion is is keep it up. Mr. Trump says he wants
to have a trade war. And the problem is he’s
always said things like that. It’s not as though
this is a new idea. And so it’s in his soul. And when things go
wrong, his reaction is have a trade or this thing. What I expect to happen
is somewhere along the line, Mr.
Trump, or somebody, is going to say, OK, we have
a– we solved the problem. Whether they have
or not, they’re going to say they’ve
solved the problem and make everybody look at. That may lead to your melt up. Then everybody’s going
to say, OK, we’re safe. We’re safe. That guy, Steve, was right. So we’ll have a gigantic
last move in the market. But then when things do start
going wrong for real, Trump, because his soul is
trade war, then we’re going to have the
real trade war. Then he’s going to come back
and say, see, I told you. Hit them, hit them, hit them. Now, he really thinks
he can win a trade war. I don’t know if Mr. Trump
doesn’t know history– Yeah. Has he heard of
Smoot-Hawley before? I don’t know if he has or
even– but even if he has, he thinks he’s
smarter than history. He thinks he himself
is smarter than history and who cares about history? History is bunk. And I can beat history. I know he cannot. You, I guess you know he cannot. History shows he cannot. But he thinks he can. And that’s the dangerous
kind of people that think– the people who think that they
can do something which they cannot. And they try, and the
problem is we all suffer. You know, we’re all going
to suffer because of that. That could be the Smoot-Hawley
ringing the bell at the top. Yeah, that– well, that
may lead to your melt up. And then your total collapse. In my– I told you,
the next bear market is going to be the
worst in my lifetime. That would be what’s
going to do it. If he comes in at that point and
says, we’re going to show them. I’m smarter than they are. We can beat them, and
we will beat them. Be worried. Be very worried. And nobody’s ever
won a trade war. I’m not the only
one here knows that. They’re easy to win, Jim. I know they are if
you’re Mr. Trump. Unfortunately, I mean– I mean
I’m not as smart as Mr. Trump, so I know that. I know that they can be very
dangerous and very destructive, and they always have been. And the worst is, it’s hard
to get out of them, you know, because then you’ve
got to save face. It’s like a real war. Nobody will get
out of the real war because they got to save face. But in the meantime, a lot of
people suffer very, very badly, and that’s always
happened with trade wars. So be worried. What you should do is
read Stansberry Research, and then you will know what
to do and how to handle it, and how to make a lot of money. I’m wondering, does
this market, Jim, remind you of any other
market that you talked about? And you’re talking about
the US nine years in? Yeah, US. Yeah, I mean– Well, they all look the same. The stocks going up get
narrower and narrower, even in the big bubble in 1999. Not every stock. The NASDAQ went straight
through the roof. It got extremely narrow, yeah. They all get narrower
and narrower. They haven’t gotten
narrow yet, though. I mean– Well, it is somewhat– wait a minute. You take out the FANGs, or
whatever they’re called, I think you’ll find that
the stock market’s not up in 2018, whatever this is. It is narrowing. But at the end, it always
gets narrower and narrower. And some of that’s
happening now. But I’m not in the
US, so I don’t– one of the things I
noticed is the markets are getting narrower
and narrower. You know, many– in 2007,
Iceland went bankrupt. Well, that’s because
what’s Iceland? Didn’t– if they noticed, they
didn’t think about it at all. But then Ireland went bankrupt. Very few people. Then Bear Stearns went bankrupt. And the next thing,
Lehman Brothers– by then, everybody knew, oh, my
god, something’s wrong. That’s the way it
always happens. The previous bear
market in ’73, ’74, equity funding went bankrupt. Well, who cared? That was early ’73. But then by ’74 when
things were collapsing, we all knew that had
been an early sign that something was going wrong. Well, right now we
have Argentina– we don’t have to
give you the list– Argentina, Indonesia,
et cetera, et cetera. Maybe that is the
Iceland, the Ireland, of the last bear market. You know, you had
Thailand in ’98. Yes, well done. They had the Asia crisis in ’98,
which led to the bear market in the US 2000. Now, you had to wait a while. But you always have
to wait a while because it starts in
the marginal areas that people aren’t
watching and that are small and people think, who
cares, it’s too small. Then eventually, it snowballs. And then we all said,
oh, my goodness, look what has happened here. We’re all losing our shirts. And that will
probably happen again. And so maybe these
are early harbingers of what’s coming down the road. But it doesn’t
mean that you can’t have those final gasp in a
few stocks, or in some stocks. Especially, if Mr. Trump
does something like says, OK, trade war is over. We’ve solved all the problems. I beat them. I showed them. He’ll do that, right? There’s no chance he’ll
take an opportunity to beat his chest, right? But if he does, if he does
win it now and says, see, I showed you, then we’ll
have the big, big gasp, the last gasp, the melt
up, as you call it, which will lead to the worst
bear market in my lifetime. Well, thank you, Jim.

100 comments on “New Money (2019) – Jim Rogers Full-Length Documentary Bonus Interview”

  1. Greiguci Wootchie says:

    8.26 Jim speaks.

  2. VOGAS says:

    Amazing hir your sub 14,361 I hope I would find you before. lovely channel I will keep watching you my friend.

  3. J L says:

    When Jim said, those event will sooner or later take place. Particularly if Trump get his continuous 4 yr term. America will totally destroy borrow from future generations at the expenses for generations to come.

  4. Jane Reynolds says:

    Is this an interview or a host diatribe? Skip first 8 mins.

  5. mark penfield says:

    Is this the guy that said we chat was going to zillion ….and we were gonna melt up ?

  6. AYFJ says:

    The host is a D-ck, shut up!!! OMG Rogers is looking at him like WTF are you being interviewed or me.


    This interview was insane… I need more from Jim Rogers and "last gasps of a market" signals.. all of which is so obviously physiological to majorities. You two killed this shit. 28 year old single father fulltime self employed in CA, grew up in AK. One love.

  8. William Lim says:

    Jim is a patient man. LOL. The host does not know he is supposed to be interviewing the guest?

  9. blondeblue32 says:

    Couldn't stand to watch it all.   China and Asia were allowed to develop due to cheap labor, and a willingness of Capitalist to invest into those countries.  Now with presidents Trumps resolve, we will see that de investing in China.   Then observe the result.

  10. Tim Verheyen says:

    Horrible host

  11. Casey Marion says:

    This is like watching a guy interviewing Tom Brady and telling him how great he is at fantasy football.

  12. musclePump1 says:

    You state you don't see the top of a bubble like before.. people quoting jobs to flip houses or people quitting to be traders..
    But think about it, stocks and real estate aren't the problem bubble.. its a DEBT bubble.. and almost everyone is America is racking up debt.. I don't know anyone around me that has lowered their consumption.. wages aren't increasing and products are getting more expensive.. yet people are continuing to spend and not budget… they are QUITTING their budgets… this is the sign your looking for and its already here….

  13. Jawad H says:

    If you were in the bitcoin bubble, you are well prepared to know when to get out of the US bubble.
    US bubble feels like a scam, almost feels like there is a arifical floor by the central bank, that will never let it crack.

  14. rurban says:

    "You can't fix a debt problem by adding more debt". End of story. It'll be a great depression

  15. i Bergamot says:

    1. Whatever he saw from motorcycle a quarter century ago has very little to do with investments into China today.
    2. When the Kid with MBA pontificates about huge growth on "any 5 year stretch" (at about 20minutes) – a long term chart of FXI, main Chinese etf, comes to mind. Look it up – any five year period over past 10-15 years would yield a loss or negligible return, except couple of lucky shortlived spots along the way. in fact- FXI aka CHINA Market is flat to down since 2007!
    3. Buy American, else end up fired from your job, living exiled abroad with children who don't speak your language…
    (Bergamot ducks)

  16. jtr789310 says:

    Jim Rogers is a dam communist that sold his country out for money

  17. jtr789310 says:

    Then you did not miss seeing the slave labor but no you not going to talk about that because you made a large profit of the slave labor

  18. jtr789310 says:

    Weihi in Mandarin means (Crisis)    not catastrophe and opportunity are the same thing . In mandarin Jim Rogers means (Gou) that translate to a wonderful word
    meaning (dog)

  19. Kimming Ong says:

    Well spoken Jim! 👏

  20. Southern Cal Fellow says:

    He is a total BS

  21. Chewie 13 says:

    When Jim says he shorts, does he buy puts or borrow shares to short?

  22. Geo economics says:

    Why is USA against
    Raise of China ?
    here is why:
    Its imperative that no Eurasian challenger emerges capable of dominating EurAsia and thus of also challenging America
    Zbignew Brzezinski
    Now you know what's up

  23. Top Bird says:

    theres no back up for anything, if they didnt work they'd die!!!Of course they had drive and ambition, death is a very real thing and life is valued at zero. You toughen up or you die its that simple. Im sure Rogers is showing us china through rose coloured spectacles. too bad if you dont follow the party line.

  24. S4ndwichGurk3 says:

    This was nice to hear. Going to China soon and I've only heard bad things so far

  25. MARLO TREE says:

    Very good. Lots to.learn from old school but howzabout the new wave?

  26. Hasan Z says:

    🔥 at 58:10

  27. Rudy Johanson says:

    Worst intro ever.

  28. Master C says:

    If only the average American has 1% of Jim Roger's wisdom, America wouldn't be in a shit hole as it is now.

  29. elsa lam says:

    This poor dr. Steve was talking too much for gaining attention. He should do his own sole talk, and be famous.

  30. Calver o says:

    Hes painting a very pretty picture of rural China. Although it can be beautiful, poverty is still rampant and the quality of life vs those in America is at least a decade apart. Food safety, overpopulation, and problems with infastructure are still big problems in lesser visited parts of China. A cashless society cannot fix these social problems and while his lived experience is valuable, there is a reason he lives in Singapore now and not in China full time. While there is opportunity we all should know local chinese will be the first to market before anyone else can have a chance and by now the world knows how fast they scale.

  31. NDE Awakening says:

    The interviewer talks way too much. I turn to this video to listen to Jim Rogers not the interviewer

  32. Bree Nguyen says:

    Shut the fuck up!!! Let Jims speak!!!!!

  33. Lee Steven says:

    Jim Roger was good when he is young, but he put all his chip in China and make a big, big mistake.

  34. Aviro Nevo says:

    the worst interviwer ever, Jim Rogers is a gentleman

  35. Shon Z says:

    He is not that person who wrote his books Commodity Exchanges anymore, where he wrote an advice Do not invest in those countries where there are no Courts and Democracy as your assets will be stolen or seized by thefts or the government.

  36. Dr Koz says:

    The last bozos are in to the market already
    Run for the exit now

  37. Nikola Milosavljevic says:

    The timing of this doc is impeccable

  38. shepherdsknoll8 says:

    It doesn’t sound like there is a lot of content on the geopolitical trade war taking place. The only message I got was that China is great , they have been here before, Mr. Trump doesn’t really know what he’s doing.
    I believe it is a war and it’s a lot more complicated than that.

  39. Sanele Buthelezi says:

    I loved the interview!!! Kikiki

  40. KK Z says:

    In 100 years from now where do you think Bejing will be vs NYC? Scary if you are an America.

  41. eper1875 says:

    Thank you MR Jim Rogers for another insight into your thinking. THis time the light bulb went on . 🙂

  42. Casper says:

    What their not mentioning is China made a free market city, copied the US and Rogers is invested.

  43. Jeff Green says:

    The Chinese stock market is extremely volatile and risky. Much more so than the US markets. If you were in it from late-2005 to late-2007 or mid-2014 to mid-2015, then you cleaned up. However, if you bought in late and held for the long term, you probably aren't doing as well as you would have with the Nasdaq 100. The Shenzhen 100 has really under-performed the NDX by a LOT since 2010. Timing is everything with the Chinese markets.

  44. Jeff Green says:

    China has only been so successful, over the past 30 years, because the United States has allowed corporations to outsource work to China, with very low tariffs imposed on Chinese goods being imported back into the USA. Trump is trying to change all of that now and reverse that trend. If he's successful, I expect to see China's economy crash and the USA economy recover somewhat. We won't fully recover to where we were pre-1990 though, due to millions of other jobs being replaced by computers/robots/machines in that same time frame.

  45. Jeff Green says:

    If you look at a historical chart of the S&P 500, you will notice that the really big bear markets (or double bear markets) only happen once every 32-39 years (1929-42, 1968-74 and 2000-2009). Since we already had one from 2000-2009 and then we started a new major bull market in 2009, we aren't due for another big double bear to start until 2032-2039. That's a long way off. Of course, we'll have many smaller bear markets (or corrections) before then, but you can hold most stocks through those if you have a good long term strategy and are diversified. This bull market is alive and well and nowhere near frothy or over-exuberant. I don't see another correction (mini-bear) coming for 1 to 2 more years or a major bear market for another 13-20 years.

  46. mic602 says:

    Being a witness and a victim of stalinist propaganda, I could not escape that unmistakable stench of communist brainwash emanating from the video.
    The “public” comments lacking sincerity, the pompous title of research institute with name copied from a phone book of some european city, the lao-wai “experts”, look like were just picked from Shanghai bars to hide the real Chinese authors behind familiar accent and faces…


  47. Wiktor Jespersen says:

    Lol propaganda video. I saw something like this from the soviet union in the old days. The reality is different. China is more about debt then anything else. 3 banks failed 1 more failing due to dollar shortage. Food prices to the moon. What people fail to understand that should the chineese poor go hungry they will revolt. Its coming to that. But by all means give china ur dollars just dont expect to be paid back. Buy the china bond!

  48. Michel_OK says:

    Got to love this streetwise man (Jim)

  49. Chan Ninja says:

    jim said ETFs are gonna get killed in the next bear market, but how about inverse ETFs? like, SQQQ?

  50. Peter Mitchell says:

    California more communist than china lol

  51. Joshua Beeler says:

    That guy would nort shut up

  52. Charles Wilson says:

    Who is talking? Certainly not Jim.

  53. Kit Junk says:

    terrible interviewer, keeps interrupting Jim

  54. Jonnes __ says:

    In China everything is new. Of course everything is very modern and they are lucky to be able to use all the newest technology (incl. support from the west) existing in this new world.
    Why Jim Rogers has always money to buy ??
    First the melt-up, then the bust… Mr. Trump will manage this, I'm sure.

  55. Peter Smith says:

    Jim Rogers is a scam artist and has been completely wrong about everything for years and years.

  56. James Campbell says:

    26:30 minutes of the video, true as the host say's in Shanghai and Beijing and other coastal Chinese cities but not so much if at all in the rest of country.

  57. BANKERRR MUSIC says:

    @46:01 yea it's cuz kids are buying Crypto market dummy face!!!!! Lol🙈🤣😊🤛👊🙏

  58. Galina says:

    Like USSA. Explosive growth in debt. Its still a tyranny. Not so subtle propaganda. China as USSA are debt junkies and BOTH are bankrupt.

  59. Gee DoubleU says:

    Here's the greatest investor in history. Now listen to me blather for 10 minutes….

  60. kudo p says:

    When China opened to the world and decided to capitalist country, many country contribute to developing China, helped and shared many infrastructure resources. Furthermore, China has been stealing and copying what is existed from the rest of the world. Of course, when there are already been invented and created, can manipulate to develop making a better new. It's relative if a billion population verses a millions, there'll be more number of Chinese will come out with a ideas and riches. So it doesn't mean they're better….. Let's not boost their BIG EGOS which they're already obnoxious, arrogant people I have experienced. Ordinary Chinese people know nothing but cheating every way they can to quick rich. They don't believe in principles nor conscience, moral, ethic value. As long as quick rich and lies, deceit to get ahead for most ordinary people. It's scary to think that most populated nation can impact with immoral value people on earth. Giving idea to China and more and more people invest in China, will give more opportunity to China to boost value. If no one interest in China nor invest in China, then they'll be no value…..

  61. truth teller says:

    Jim Rodgers and sores sell outs. there good friends

  62. evazheng2046 says:

    he's a good interviewer. It's good to hear his own story before the interview. Just be a little patient, people

  63. Fafa MJ says:

    Millions of thanks to Mr. Rogers for his brilliant insights.

  64. Ed McCaffrey says:

    Everyone was up early and working, the work ethic is the reason. It was that exact same way in America lst century. Unfortunately as a nation we have lost that, an ethical hard work, once here, now disappear ing quickly, and the fate of America will disappear with it.

  65. Jim Veybe says:

    You should fire your video editor. Could have saved ten minutes by cutting out the host's poor questions. Goodness…

  66. John Jones says:

    Jim>> How many Chinese you know or meet. There is like 1.5 billion of them.The chinese mainland is hard pressed to feed their people and have polluted almost the whole Coastline .Sounds like you know nothing about The Usa at all.The USA suffers from it government only a welfare state run by socialists.The USA military is the police of the entire world and funds all kinds of people who pay to much for what they could do themselves.But thats our paranoid gov, that gives off that impression.Not the real people which are actually in the minority now.The USA suffers from over building and debt and have for 25 years about.

  67. Rob Johnson says:

    Jim Rogers was having none of that guy’s thesis of his melt up theory.

  68. Yvonne Hyatt says:

    These will tell you -YouTube: Agenda 21.and Pyramids, JFK To 911, Everything Is A Rich Man’s Trick -Part 3 .

  69. l. S. says:

    Jimmy needs to lose some weight and start doing aerobics

  70. John Wang says:

    Jim, moral foundation is everything, CCP could let you rich quickly, but they have all the control to take your money back quickly even faster. CCP has done this kind things to Chinese people again and again. If only CCP disappear from China, otherwise all what you see is temporary bubble. Jim, talk to Miles Kwok (Guo Wengui) please, without talking to him, you know nothing about China CCP! you may know hard working Chinese, but they are slaved by CCP, you have the undeniable responsibility to change CCP for Chinese and for yourself.

  71. I3enson says:

    Also worth noting, China has not been bombing and shooting Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001. Chinese presidents have never owned slaves. China does not allow corrupt orange colored real estate moguls to be their leader.

  72. unknown territory says:

    basically jim rogers was telling this dude your an idiot to buy into this market this high. And he continues on and on how he thinks its a bull market. As long as trump is president his chinese stocks is going down.

  73. Deep P says:

    Hey, Jim why do you still have your US citizenship, why don't you get rid of it if China is so great? Get a Chinese one maybe since you're close now to CCP and people of influence living there so long now and can get one easily and relinquish your US one… Do you still have US citizenship cause you have a Trust/ or have structured properly in US and can go back to escape in case China collapses? I Lost a lot of respect for you Jim… This idiot interviewing you is at least 12years too late on the China boom to say the least since 2008 when CCP started pumping Chinese economy with cheap % rate loans after the crisis… The HK situation is gonna come back to haunt and awake the Real people of China, you'll see how it plays out in coming months..

  74. Shahnewaz Md. Sunvee says:

    It's an advertisement on China. If you are an American and want to invest in China, you will find only a few investment firms available to you with whom you can communicate effectively. Those few companies made this advertisement for you. The only reason Chinese companies get so big, is the banning of foreign companies by the Chinese gov. in mainland China. The second reason its population size. whatever the reason, Chinese got rich and even become millionaires and billionaires for sure and so it is a good investment, and thats the opportunity few investment firms are seeking from american investors. So they made this advertisement in documentary style.

  75. Tristan Mac Lennan says:

    We came here to hear Jim, not you, so shut up, and ask questions, that's your job!

  76. LogansBicycleLodge St Colomb de Lauzun SW France says:

    ROGERS WORKS FOR CCP Chinese Criminal Party I cant get my money out of CCP !!! POS !!!

  77. Long Field says:

    then everybody is panic, including me. But i hope i am smart enough and brave enough to buy something at that time

  78. Grant D. Conroy says:

    Time to shuffle your cards gents, any cards can come as the house pleases to deal them. Red Fox & others who’s lawyer David L., we shared info, he related the house is arrogant & Red quit his Hit Tv Show on national television over not giving him a larger dressing room with a window like others. Of course his contract was comings up after he made an unbelievable great show..It’s about mentality, & the club make`s or changes the rules to suit them..I`m with this gentleman who has traveled & gained great knowledge of Asia & it’s marvelous people..But I listen. “ Communism in California” comment was great! The “mother load” some believe is California, if a “one party control” defines his comment on Communism, one asks “if the shoes fits!” As a home owner of property in Hawaii for over 30 years I know the Chinese are marvelous & their “work ethic” is legendary not to mention their intriguing culture..

  79. Chris P. Bacon says:

    China took over a few banks in 2019, baoshan bank and some. More coming

  80. Chris P. Bacon says:

    China population is going to decline like Japan, as an onvestor you have to be brave to do somthing

  81. Quantum Chang says:

    If Petter Schiff is right, Jim Roger's US dollars will burn up so much faster than he could use it to buy precious metals. Peter Schiff has not proven wrong in his predictions so far and that should worry Jim.

  82. james rattenborg says:

    Mr. Rogers What in the hell do you have to say about China's human rights abuses in Hong Kong? What in the hell do you care since you hate America and adore China. If you want to know the true economic condition of China watch Kyle Bass on You tube China is totally dependent on US dollars to trade as nobody wants the communist China's devalued yuan. We sold all of our Chinese stocks. Go ahead Jim, Cash in on the cheap communist labor.

  83. james rattenborg says:

    Watch American Thought Leaders interview with Kyle Bass to learn what is happening in China behind the scenes.

  84. Joseph Stalin says:

    this interviewer talked too much….shut the fuck up and let jim roger talk! idiots

  85. Patti Funkhouse says:

    “More money has been lost preparing for a bear market than has ever been lost in a bear market” – paraphrasing Peter Lynch,
    This has been true time and again. My favourite all time loser is now Jim Rogers. The so called commodity bull and USA dollar bear. It is hard to calculate all the money he lost “protecting himself” and other doomsday preppers/believers from the collapse of the US economy since 2010! That arrogant prick is rarely on TV now but he still thinks he is right! DOW 27.000 says otherwise.

  86. BiG CaT says:

    Lol yahh Hong Kong is shining example of how awesome China is today .
    I can't tell if you dropped this ahead of the issue to temper it or if you just have brutal luck either it's funny as hell .
    Free Hong Kong .

  87. XU ZHIJIN says:


  88. PillCosby says:

    Taking advantage of stupid policy with America created China today. Good for them, but the party's over.

  89. Anisnabe-qwe says:

    he is a Soros funded creep, he wants to gut them like SOROS, who got killed 6 months ago. Jim has to get $$ cause Soros is gone

  90. Traveling Mann says:

    Jim i love your brutal honesty when it came to calling investment vehicles way back when you were on Channel 4 in NY…your bike tour throughout China in 1988 is vastly different if you tried to do that today…you maybe re-educated…or your organs donated unwittingly…have you driven through the ghost towns of which are numerous…we have some in Michigan but those are way too few in number…I’m guessing you are being kind to a Dictatorial State so you can make another car run…btw, you didn’t have enough time to truly talk about what you saw in those cities in China, if you did you would have changed your mind…USA and the rest of the world fell asleep at the wheel for 30 years and are just now starting to wake up…They steal and copy everything, almost everything…Trump has changed much of that…talk about new projects in Shenzhen where building collapsed while families where living inside of them!!! talk about how its citizens are being poisoned with fake food!! And are you a Soros buddy still!? I certainly hope your not!!

  91. Freddie G says:

    This Jim guy isn't really taking in the Chinese culture. He didn't even kill one of his baby girls…. What a poser!

  92. Geng Yin says:

    Normally, I really appreciate Mr Rogers POV. In this case, I disagree. I think Trump has China confused & has cut off leaks from moles serving China’s interest. Even the Hong Kong protesters have China ill-prepared for a resolution in its favor. Privately, China’s bureaucracy is too BIG for fast efficient changes, like Trump has been making in the 🇺🇸 government. I don’t foresee China’s long term ideological survival as immune from division, upheaval, crisis or war.

  93. A Fridays says:

    This host needs to talk less about himself and bragging about. Let the guest talk!!

  94. david ouellette says:


  95. Lu Ha says:

    USA made china rich

  96. Jeebus says:

    The audio is so quiet, it would be nice if it could be adjusted.

  97. PEACE& RESPECT says:

    US and China can find common interests. Accept each others differences.

  98. Das Kai-ser says:

    jim, steve, there's one incredible factor that you have left out that has never ever previously before existed – AI and robot trading.

  99. David Forbes says:

    Jim Rogers, Malcolm Forbes, the men who made the belt and road initiative possible. I'll bet there's a lot of money in China. But you'll never get it out again. Us Treasury debt 23,141,072,618,000 and rising 100,000 dollars every 3 seconds.

  100. Stan Getz says:

    8:24 Jim starts at

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