Panel on Financial Inclusion


{Music} – Good afternoon everyone. My name is Kim Schoenholtz, I direct Stern’s Center for
Global Economy and Business, the sponsor of today’s event. I’m delighted to welcome you to this panel on
financial inclusion. The program will last
up to 75 minutes. We’ll begin with comments
of up to 10 minutes, from each of the
three panelists. I will then moderate the Q&A, with the questions
coming primarily from you in the audience. So, let me show you what I mean. Please note on the
screen on the left, that you can submit questions
using your smartphone by going to the website, www.slido.com, s-l-i-d-o, and entering the
code number 7777 in the box labeled join. Anonymous questions
are not permitted so please provide
your full name. You can also vote
on the questions that others have
submitted, those votes are on the top right, so
even small numbers of votes can change elections. And your votes will
help us judge the issues that are of greatest
importance to you. Let me now briefly introduce
our distinguished panelists. I want to start by thanking
Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, who you can see on the screen. Asli spent five hours on
the runway in DC today trying to get here,
eventually going home, and she’s now on Skype, and
we thank her for doing this, we thank our wonderful
Stern IT team for acting really quickly
to make this feasible. So thanks to everybody,
I’m just gonna give them a hand (claps)
myself right now. (audience clapping) So, quick introductions. Asli is the Director of
Research at the World Bank where she has worked since 1989. Her research
focuses on the links between financial development and firm performance in
economic development. Asli founded the
Global Findex Database, that is used worldwide
to measure progress toward financial inclusion. She is the lead author
of the World Bank policy research report,
Finance for All?, Policies and Pitfalls
in Expanding Access, and also created
the World Bank’s Global Financial
Development Report. Asli has been the
President of the International Atlantic
Economic Society, and Director of the Western
Economic Association. She holds a Phd in Economics
from Ohio State University. Jonathan Morduch, who’s sitting
in the middle, so-to-speak, is Professor of Public
Policy and Economics at NYU’s Wagner School,
this is our home professor. He has co-authored
several books related to poverty and
finance, including
Portfolios of the Poor, The Financial Diaries, and
The Economics of Microfinance. He is co-editor of Banking
the World: Empirical Foundations of
Financial Inclusion. Jonathan also is a founder
and Executive Director of the NYU Financial
Access Initiative. Having received his PhD
in Economics from Harvard, he has taught at Harvard, and held visiting positions at Princeton, Stanford, and
the University of Tokyo. Tavneet Suri on the far side, is the Louis E. Seley
Professor of Applied Economics at MIT Sloan School
of Management. A development economist
specialized in
sub-Saharan Africa, Tavneet’s work focuses on
digital financial services for the poor as well as on
agriculture and governance. She is an NBR Research Fellow, editor of VoxDev,
an online platform for experts in
development policy, Scientific Director
for Africa at J-PAL, the Poverty Action Lab, and a board member
of BREAD, B-R-E-A-D, a non-profit
organization dedicated to research and
development economics. Please join me in
warmly welcoming our
panelists to Stern. (audience clapping) So, following
alphabetical order, we’ll start with
introductory comments from Asli, followed by
Jonathan, and Tavneet, and Asli’s going to
have to hear me tell her that we’ve got the
slides projected, so just one second, I’m
gonna get that going and, I believe we now, did I
put it over here, yeah, we now have, Asli’s
first slide is up. So Asli, please take it away. – Okay well thank you very much, I’m really sorry I can’t
be there in person, but I really tried. So I can’t see the slides, so can we just go to
the first slides on, why focus on
financial inclusion? – [Kim] You’ve got it.
– Okay. So at the Bank,
we’ve been working on financial inclusion
for over a decade now, and I wanted to just say why
we prioritize this topic. Obviously, in
development theories, access to financial
services is key, it’s very important for people to be able to invest
in their health, in their education, in
business opportunities. Access to financial
services makes it easier to manage financial emergencies, and over the last
years, there’s been, a accumulation of quite a
bit of empirical evidence through rigorous
field experiments that suggest that individuals,
especially the poor, really benefit from basic payment, savings,
insurance services. There’s a bit of a
more mixed evidence when it comes to microcredit, promoting investment
and entrepreneurship mostly for households
with existing businesses, but we also know that small
firms, young start-ups, and for them access to
finance is really associated with innovation, job
creation, and growth, so this is an area that we
care deeply about at the Bank. So for the next slide, in my remarks I want
to focus on two issues, one is the importance
of generation of data on financial inclusion, and the other one is to provide help in design
of financial inclusion strategies and programs. Now, I wanted to focus on these because I think this
is where the World Bank has comparative advantage. We have been trying
to, sort of focus on getting consistent
data to help measure and benchmark
financial inclusion, and one of the reasons for this, of course in addition to
personally taking the research is the importance of
such availability of data to focus policy attention,
because without such data it’s hard to focus
policy attention, and this has allowed
more and more policymaker attention
and ever since we started doing
this work, actually, we’ve seen that many
governments around the world, over 60 of them, have decided
to develop financial inclusion strategies with formal
targets and policy frameworks, and again the Bank, sort
of working globally, and sort of distilling
best practice lessons, and bringing it together
with academic evidence, is in a good position
to try to provide evidence-based policy
advice in these areas. So, next please. So let me get to measurement. This is again an area we have
been working on for a while, Jonathan will
remember, leading up to the UN Year of
Microcredit in 2005, we’d been trying to, sort of, the first thing we noticed is that there was so little data, it’s ironic that there is
actually the financial sector there’s often a lot of
data, high frequency data, but then you try to
ask questions like, what’s the proportion
of households, or what’s the proportion
of individuals in a country with
a bank account, we didn’t have this information and it was quite difficult
to piece it together, initially we tried to look
at from the supply-side, tried to look at bank
branch penetration, ATM penetration, put it together with household surveys,
tried to piece together and impute data, but
eventually in 2011, we were lucky enough to
sort of have a partnership with the Gates Foundation
and Gallup Corporation, and we started Global Findex, which is actually a
user-side database based on interviews with
almost 150,000 adults in Europe and in 40
countries worldwide, covering 97% of the population, and this allows us to measure financial inclusion
in a consistent manner across the world,
obviously trying to see how individuals, save, borrow,
make payments, manage risk, and importantly, whether
different groups, such as the poor,
women, and so on, are excluded to what
extent they are excluded, and this because we
do this data gathering exercise every three
years, so we’ve done a 2014 edition, and the 2017 was issued last May, it’s
possible to see progress, and it’s possible
for policymakers to track their progress
looking at this data as well. So let me go to the next slide, where I give you a
little bit of the flavor of what we’ve been seeing. So the good news is, we do see that
financial inclusion is
on the rise globally, so when we looked at
2017 compared to 2014, account ownership rose to 69% of the adult population
from 62% in 2014. We do care about the
proportion of adults with an account because
this is the first step in entering the formal
financial system. So in developing countries
the figure is 63%, comparing to 2011 when
we first started this, there was account
ownership was only about half of the
adult population, so you can see that
there has been progress. But of course it
varies across the globe and you can see that there
is different shades of blue on the screen indicating
that there’s still more work to be done in different
regions and countries. So the next slide please. Just a couple of highlights. One point that I want to make is how important digital
technology has been in driving access to
financial services. Obviously, sub-Saharan Africa has been at the
forefront of this, mobile money account
ownership rose from 12% to 21% in the last version of the database. And interestingly
mobile money spread from East Africa to West
Africa and beyond, so for example, countries
like Bangladesh, Iran, Mongolia, and Paraguay, share of adults with
a mobile money account now has reached 20% of
the population and more, so this is one point. Now there is also
some disappointments. Women are lagging behind. Globally it’s 72% of
men have an account, while only 65% of women do, and this seven percentage
point gender gap was also present when
we first started, it was present in 2014 and
it’s still present now. And when you look at developing countries the gap is persistent at nine
percentage points, so there is more to be done for
women’s financial inclusion. Both men and women
have been improving, but just there has been
this persistent gap. And the other
point is looking at use of accounts, obviously
ownership of accounts is important but
it’s not as effective if nobody is using it
so it’s also important to track to what extent
accounts are being used. On that, globally about
20% of account owners have inactive
accounts, that means, they haven’t used it
over the last year. And this figure is about 25% when we look at
developing countries, but certainly, there is
quite a bit of variance, for example, in South
Asian countries, this is much higher,
in India for example, almost half of all
accounts are inactive, but we need to also keep in mind that India has had
a very big surge in account ownership from 53% to almost 80% in 2017, so account use has been lagging. And even here technology helps, over the last years we’ve seen that in developing
economies the share of account owners
using digital payments actually grew from 57% to 70%. So let’s go to the next slide. If I just wanted to show you the promise of technology I
think this is a good picture. There are still
1.7 billion adults who remain unbanked
around the world, but the good news is 1.1 billion of these people, 2/3rds of them, actually have a mobile phone, so I think this sort of captures potentially that the next time we do Global Findex,
we hope to see much more of an advancement
in financial inclusion. So I think I’m
running out of time, in the last slide
I do want to say a couple things very
briefly, maybe the headlines on you know some of the advice we like to give
developing countries in designing
inclusion strategies. I think one of the things that the governments
need to focus on is addressing the fundamentals, because financial
inclusion is lacking because of market failures
and policy failures and the first thing for
governments is to ensure that they focus on
alleviating these, so we can talk more about them
perhaps in the discussion. The second is something that I’ve been talking
about all along, the important role
of technology, but of course, you
know what to do in order to embrace
technology and ensure that we make the most of it, and again there are things
that could be done there. And finally it’s also
important to emphasize what type of direct
interventions are to be avoided
and what are some of the direct interventions
that we do see to be useful. On the ones to be avoided, I think those are particularly
on the credit side, interventions such
as directed credit, subsidized lending
through state-owned banks, or debt relief programs, tend not to work very
well in sustainably improving access to finance
and financial inclusion. On the other hand,
looking at Global Findex, suggest that policies to
expand account penetration such as requiring banks to
offer basic or low fee accounts, granting exemption from owners’
documentation requirements, providing national
IDs, allowing agent to correspond with banking,
again, digitalization, seem to be
particularly effective in the sense that
they’re correlated with better inclusion
of those segments of the population that
tend to be less likely to be included like
the poor and the women. So let me stop here and
then we can continue later, thank you very much. – [Kim] Thank you Asli. (audience clapping) Jonathan it’s all
yours and there you go. – Should I go stand over there? – Where-ever you like. – I think it’ll be easier. Thank you. I want to share a few thoughts about financial inclusion
from the household side. So Asli just gave
us a great overview of how financial inclusion
is progressing globally, and we see these
incredible increases in access to bank accounts,
from 50% just a few years ago, up to 69% now. It’s an incredible
accomplishment in such a short period of time. But ultimately the question is, what do households need and
how well are needs being met? As Asli said, 25% of
accounts are not being used in developing countries. And so, I want to
share a little bit from a few different
research projects to give you a sense of how we sort of frame these issues. I want to start with,
one example from some research called
Portfolios of the Poor, which is based on a methodology
called financial diaries. On some level it’s
a very simple method it’s basically convincing
a group of households to share with us every element
of their financial life. Every dollar they earn,
every dollar they spend, every dollar they
borrow or share or save, everything, whether
formal or informal. And the example I want to share is from work by Stuart
Rutherford, a colleague. And this particular
example is of a rickshaw driver in
Dhaka, in Bangladesh, and this is Hamid, the picture. He and his wife, Khadeja, live in one of the slums in Dhaka. And what’s striking about Hamid as you get to know him,
and follow him over a year, is that on average, his
income is about $2 a day. So he’s part of the global poor that are living on
under $2 a day or less, right the global poverty line
of the World Bank these days is $1.90 per person per day. But what becomes
readily apparent as one follows Hamid’s life, is that his
challenge is not just that his family earns
$2 a day per person, it’s that some days
he does really well, he might earn $10 a day, and then for two weeks
earn very little. some seasons, he does
well, some seasons, he does much less well. And so the challenge
for Hamid is not just living on such a low income. It’s living on an
unsteady income and also having unsteady needs, and that reframes how we think
about the world of finance and the importance of
financial inclusion in the lives of people like
Hamid and his wife Khadeja. Here they are in the
one room of their house, and if we had asked them what
their main financial tools are they’d answer, probably
quickly some microfinance. Microfinance often is equated
with financial inclusion, right microfinance,
a chance to invest, become an entrepreneur,
and Khadeja, Hamid’s wife, does a little bit of sewing, a little bit of
embroidery at home, and so she’s part
of that system. But if we stop
there, we would miss most of what makes
Hamid and Khadeja’s financial life really work. And so as the research team
spent the year with them, we start to see a lot of
other financial mechanisms at play. They’re borrowing money,
they’re lending money, they’re holding money,
they’re sharing it, they’re sending remittances, we have a wealth of different
financial activities that often go under the radar. And so well, we look
to financial inclusion and the expansion of
the formal sector, the fact that there are so
many informal mechanisms still at play suggests
that the formal sector still isn’t providing
all of the needs of people like
Hamid and Khadeja, even though they’re included, you know they have
microfinance accounts formally, and would be included in
the global number of banked. What’s more, even though
Hamid and Khadeja are poor, a fairly large share
of these activities are actually saving activities. And we start to see
that poor households like Hamid and
Khadeja’s are saving, not despite their poverty,
but because they are poor, because of the ups
and downs they need to hold onto money for when
things aren’t quite so flush. And so it starts to reframe
our understanding of not only poverty
but also finance, and the way that we
describe this is thinking of poverty as partly a function, I should say the financial
elements of poverty as a function of low incomes, and microfinance and
other interventions try to address that. But low incomes
together with irregular and unpredictable incomes. It’s the irregularity
and unpredictability which then creates a
lot of the tensions together with the
unpredictability of needs, together then, with
the lack of appropriate financial tools. And that’s where finance
really can make a difference, and it’s really these
elements together which drive the tensions and challenges of being poor. I want to turn to another
case in Bangladesh, which is more hopeful and Asli had touched on this, when she was describing the rapid explosion of digital
technologies, mobile money. Tavneet’s done a lot
of important work here, and we looked at
Tavneet’s work and, the explosion of
activity that’s happening in Kenya, especially,
but in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa,
but in parallel there’s been growth in other
places like Bangladesh, and this is a typical
use case in Bangladesh, mobile money used
to send remittances, and so this is an advertising for the main mobile
money provider bKash, and you can see that
the ad is saying hey, you know you’re overworked
as a factory worker, life is hard enough already, adopt this new technology
and it just makes life much simpler so you
can send money home, not only more quickly but also with greater
reliability and ease. That idea is something
we’ve tested recently, and what we saw
also helped us see how mobile money is not just a cool new way to bank people, but also is making fundamental
changes in peoples’ lives. In many ways we’re building off of Tavneet’s work in Kenya. And so we had a project where we were looking at
some very very poor villages, that are usually outside of
the formal financial system, and we introduced
them to mobile money. At the same time, and you
know it’s a very simple setup, at the same time, we
were working in Dhaka, in the capital city,
where the children of the families in the
villages had now migrated, the adult children to work
in the garment factories, and we also connected
them to mobile money. And once both sides of the
transactions had mobile money, we started to see
remittance flows increasing in frequency and in volume and, what we saw happening in the
villages was very striking. These poor villages, which
really had very little sort of opportunity
for income expansion, all of a sudden they’re
getting more money. These are areas where
there’s a hungry season, people often go hungry during
a few months of the year, once they were hooked
up to mobile money, the remittances were
helping and we saw much greater increases
in calorie consumption in those periods. So what seems like just
a way to move money also turns out to be an
important insurance device that really can matter
for poor households. The last thing I
just want to say, is that this isn’t just a
developing country story, we’re doing similar work in
the US in low income areas. This is drawing from work
called The Financial Diaries, where we were in California,
Mississippi, here in New York and in Ohio, and we
saw something similar. As the labor market
changes in the US, workers increasingly
see unstable incomes. They have steady jobs,
but not steady paychecks. Here are two examples,
one from Ohio and one from Mississippi. But we have story after
story that looks like that. And so as we turn
to thinking about financial inclusion, we see that thinking about peoples’ incomes, it’s obviously an
important goal, thinking about building wealth, obviously an important goal, but what hasn’t gotten
so much attention but which is fundamental
for households like the ones
we’ve met globally, has to do with cash flows, and being able to move money from one point of time
to the other point, in the amounts needed
at the time needed, it’s really a liquidity issue as much as anything else. And so finally, as
we put this together we start to see an important
element of inequality, that there are citizens who are included in financial
systems and have both fundamental
steadiness of their incomes and their basic financial lives, that have strong coping
mechanisms to deal with problems that arise,
and that describes many of the richer parts of, not just the US but Bangladesh, the other places
we’ve been working. But then there’s
another population, that’s poorer, but are
also facing unsteadiness without the tools to deal
with that unsteadiness. That’s a fundamental injustice in how society is arranged, and it’s really that
injustice which in many ways financial inclusion is
trying to address, so. (audience clapping) – [Tavneet] I’ll let
Jonathan sit down. Alright, can I see my slides, I can, I’m missing pictures, aw, that’s really sad. So thanks for the invite
Kim, it’s so good to be here. And thank you all for coming out in the weather that’s out there, which you know I was
having lunch with somebody when it started snowing at
like two and I was like, it’s snowing and it’s
the middle of November. So I appreciate you being here. Jonathan already gave a bunch
of my work a good intro, so we completely planned this. (audience laughing) I’m gonna sort of
step down a little from both what Jonathan
and what Asli did and talk a little
bit about kind of the stuff we’ve been doing about digital financial inclusion, so I’m gonna be a
little more specific on one side of things
that’s been going on in sub-Saharan Africa. This is just the growth
in mobile payments, I’m gonna skip it
since Asli gave you a good example of
what mobile money and mobile payments look like. And instead I’m gonna talk about work we’ve done in
Kenya over the last, pretty much decade now. First around mobile money and
then around digital credit, you’ll see some stuff that’s
pretty hot off the presses, not just our existing work
that Jonathan referenced, and basically mobile
money has led to this huge expansion in a version
of financial inclusion. As Asli and Jonathan
both mentioned, you know in Kenya pretty much, there is universality of
mobile money accounts, almost everybody has a
mobile money account, which is a digital payment
account on your cell phone, okay and that’s pretty
dramatic to go from zero or some neighborhood of zero,
to 100% in about 10 years. And the way they’ve
done this is they brought the kind of
cash in, cash out system that people need around
some sort of virtual account closer to people. Okay and the way
they did this is when you do mobile money you’re gonna put
money in your phone, you need to cash in,
cash out at some point, you’re gonna cash
in and cash out, not at ATMs or at banks,
but at local kiosk stores, those very small stores, you
can see a picture over there. And those are gonna be your
cash in, cash out points. So just to give you
the example of Kenya which is the one I know best, but this is similar in
large parts of East Africa. There’s only about 1000
ATMs across the country, there’s about 200,000 of those
cash in, cash out points. So think of mobile
money as providing an infrastructure that’s
about 200x as large as the banking infrastructure. Okay to give some numbers, and I’ll show you
a map in a second, today the average
household is about, less than a kilometer,
.9 of a kilometer away from one of those,
that’s a 10 minute walk. Before mobile money
they were 10 kilometers from a bank, and
people are walking, they don’t largely have cars, so who’s walking 10
kilometers one-way to the bank each day? It’s not happening, right? So what they did
is kind of bring the infrastructure that
banking traditionally gives you down to very close to people. Okay which means they can
engage with this much better. So I’m gonna show
you the growth in financial inclusion
points, basically in Kenya, from 2007 to 2015, don’t
worry about the empty space, there’s largely very few people
in that empty space, okay. But you can see
this huge explosion and of course on the
right there’s lots of dots on top of each other. The big ones I want to
point out are the yellow, which is the growth in
mobile money agents, these are those cash
in, cash out points for mobile money. And then the pink are
banking agents of some sort. So banks have kind of
jumped on the bandwagon with mobile money and realized you know if you can’t
beat ’em, you join ’em, and so they’ve started
to create agent networks through some
businesses to provide deposits and withdrawals
for the banking system. Okay you’ve seen this
huge, huge increase in sort of access to these
financial service points. Let me tell you what
mobile money did in Kenya, and I’ll explain this
picture in a second. This was kind of the
first part of our work on mobile money in Kenya,
it’s called M-Pesa, which is M for mobile, Pesa
means money in Swahili. And so what we looked
at is this concept of financial resilience, and
both the previous speakers mentioned this one
core component of
financial inclusion, or financial wellbeing
is resilience. When bad stuff happens to
you, how can you manage it? Can you manage it and can
you deal with it, okay? And in the developed
world we have two ways of doing this, I buy
private sector insurance, so I either buy health
care, or my employer gives me health
insurance in some way. Or we have social safety nets
from the government, right, so when I get unemployed,
there’s unemployment insurance from the government. When there’s some disaster,
there’s emergency relief from the government. Both of those are largely absent for large segments of
the population in Africa. The government doesn’t provide
extensive social safety nets, and the private
sector is largely too expensive for most people. So what do people
do, they kind of form these informal
insurance networks. So what do I do, I make
a deal with Jonathan, and I say hey Jonathan, if
something bad happens to you, I’m gonna help you, but then
when something bad happens to me you return the favor. These networks are not
caused by mobile money by any stretch, we have a
running joke in development that you can’t be a
development economist without having written a
paper on this phenomenon existing in some random country. And so we know these
networks exist, we know these processes exist, because people have to deal
with risk in some way, right? And so what happened when
mobile money came was all these sort of
informal agreements, like when something bad
happens to Jonathan, right, I have to get him money, right, I have to actually
get it to him, and so when mobile
money came along all of this sort of,
all these transactions came onto the mobile floor. Before, what would I do? I would actually travel
to Jonathan’s house, and try and get it to him, which is actually
quite expensive, and the further away he
is, the more expensive. Or I would give it
to a bus driver, I’m gonna pick on Mike
’cause he’s the other person I know in the audience, my
bus driver looks like that, I’m not sure I wanna
give him my money, right, will it get to
Jonathan, I don’t know. Okay so it was in this
informal system handing money to people to deliver for you, okay and this turns
out to be expensive, not very safe, not very
efficient, not very quick. In our first round of data when mobile money first started, the average transactions
travels about 200 kilometers. In Kenya that’s a $5 bus ride, right it’s quite
expensive thing, so the advantage
of mobile money was now it didn’t matter
what the distance is, I pay 35 cents a transaction,
the money goes off, I don’t know, you know,
it could be 35 cents if I’m sending it to Kim
who’s sitting next to me, or 35 cents if I’m sending
it 1000 kilometers. So you kind of broke that
sort of distance barrier. So what this graph
is, is just saying, look let’s see what
happens to people when a bad event happens to them and I picked out, kind
of, a health event, that means someone in your
house, your kid or your spouse, or someone living in
your house got sick. And the way we kind
of think of resilience is we look at your
expenditures and see did you have to kind of cut
stuff out of your expenditure, did you have to change some way you were spending
your daily life, okay? So when we have a health event, I’m just gonna show
you what happens differently for the
people who had access to mobile money and
those who didn’t. So what happens is, in the
guys who have mobile money their expenditures
are all gonna go up. There’s two things to note, for the people who have
mobile money and don’t, they spend about the
same amount on medicine, okay so it turns out,
if you’re rich or poor, whatever is happening
in your life, if someone gets sick,
you go figure out a way to spend some money
to get them better. So we will always
find that health is a very important
priority for these people. For the people who
don’t have mobile money where does that money come from, they’re gonna cut it out of
other parts of their budget. So they take it out of non-food, which is schooling in this case, and they take it out of food. For the people who
have mobile money they’re able to not
just spend on medicine but they’re able to spend
more on food, right, so we’ve all taken
medicine from the doctor, eat, take with food, turns out, a very, very important
part of health is food, and you’ll see basically not
only do they spend on medicine, they’re able to spend on
food and non-food as well. Okay and what we see in the data is why is this, why are
they able to actually improve kind of what
they’re spending? It’s because they can
reach out to more people on their cell phone,
they’re more likely to receive money, they
receive more money, and they receive from
more different people. Okay so by making the
transactions cheaper, quicker, more efficient, I’m getting more
transactions, right, instead I was spending a dollar to get money to Jonathan,
now I’m spending 30 cents, I can send that extra
piece to him now too, right because I’m not
spending it on transactions. So this is kind of the
improvement in resilience we saw in mobile money, kind of, as a result of reducing
transaction costs so dramatically you
see this improvement in how financially
resilient people are. And then we went back
a few years later and said okay, if
you’re more resilient we should see bigger,
longer term effects, right? So everybody I’m sure has heard the higher risk, higher return? If I’m better
protected against risk, I expect to be able
to take advantage of higher risk, higher
return opportunities ’cause I know I’m
better protected. I know Jonathan’s there,
I know Mike’s there, I know Kim’s there, so I can
kind of do high risk things. So we see this about
five years later we see a reduction
in poverty of about two percentage points
because of M-Pesa, that’s about 196,000 households just under a million people
moved out of poverty. And we also see women
switch occupational choice from agriculture into retail, okay that’s the higher
risk, higher return. Okay for the last
two minutes I have, I want to talk
about something new, which is once mobile
money is there and everybody has an account, the banks have been layering
on digital bank accounts. So these are fully, fully
digital bank accounts. So what do I do, I
take my mobile phone, by the way these are all
dumbphones, not smartphones, okay so we’re still in
the old Nokia brick land, and they’re gonna open
up a bank account, okay completely
digital bank account, if I want to put money
into my bank account, I’m gonna use the
rails of mobile money. I put it into my
mobile money account and I move it across costlessly. If I want to withdraw
money from my bank account, I move it from the bank account to my mobile money
account, free, and then pull it out of my mobile money account
the usual way. So basically once
mobile money has set up all this infrastructure right, all the accounts and all the
cash in, cash out points, I can layer on a digital
bank account, okay. Now the beauty of
this for the bank is no tellers, no branches, no
loan officers, no nothing, right it’s completely digital. For the people, they don’t
have to go to a bank branch to deposit money, they
don’t have to go to a bank to ask for a loan. The minute you
open your account, there’s a backend scoring system that is based on data
on your transactions, it gives you a credit limit, you borrow up to
that credit limit, et cetera et cetera, everything
is completely digital, I request a loan and it comes
into my account immediately. Because the minute
I opened an account they told me your limit is x, so up until that
point I can borrow. So there’s now 15
digital lenders in Kenya, and you can see what
the major ones are but just to give you a sense, the biggest one is
one called M-shwari by the Commercial
Bank of Africa, it’s 70% of Kenyans
now have a bank account on M-shwari, okay, a digital
bank account on M-shwari, and about 30% of Kenyans have
taken a loan on M-shwari. Okay so the last piece
I’ll tell you about is a piece we did
around M-shwari and trying to understand the
impacts M-shwari has on people, we’re gonna see actually
very similar results to mobile money. We see an improvement
in resilience, and we see an ability to
spend more on education. And again it’s the same idea, if they don’t have
the resilient piece, if I can’t take the loan out when something bad happens
to me, what am I gonna do? I’m gonna cut education
and spend on health, most of the emergencies
are health-based, they’re taking out the loans
and spending them on health. Right but if you
didn’t have that loan you’d be cutting education. So again with M-shwari we’re
gonna see the same piece, we see an improvement
in resilience, and an improved ability to
pay for education, okay. So basically I
think digital tools have been able to come through and not just expand
financial inclusion but really improve
financial wellbeing. Okay there’s still
lots of room to go ’cause the loans are
small, they’re not quite giving people enough credit, but the first step I
think has been able to expand access and
inclusion in this way, in a very particular
way for people to be able to provide them
some form of resilience. Okay, I’ll stop there. Happy to take
questions, comments. (audience clapping) – [Kim] Thank you so much. So, first of all thanks
to all of our speakers, that was great. (audience clapping) And we’re now at the
stage where I’m going to, whoops if I don’t
get this right, I don’t wanna cut
off the Skype line, we’re gonna switch to Slido, and hopefully display
fullscreen, there we are. So what you’ll
notice is once again, you can go, this is how
you submit questions, go to slido.com, 7777, submit questions and
vote for the questions, your votes will change the
ordering of the questions. So Asli I’m gonna
say them out loud to make sure you can hear them, and if you wanna jump
in please just like make a loud noise. (Asli laughing) So, first one is about, people who have, let’s say
recently become banked, and we saw from the
wonderful Global Findex data that quite a few people,
a quarter of those who’ve become banked in
the developing world, don’t use their accounts,
they’re inactive. So the question is really, what are the most effective ways to encourage use of
financial services? So Asli I don’t know
if you want to jump in, I’m sure there will
be people here who do, but I’m giving you
the first option. – Sure. Digitalization is a
very important weapon we could promote greater use. For example, one
million banked adults still make utility
payments in cash. And 900 million of those
have a mobile phone, so there are some
low-hanging fruit here, so 300 million account
owners still get their private sector
wages in cash. 275 million people get their
agricultural payments in cash, so if the governments
were to move wages into bank accounts, if
private sector were to do that, if it was possible
for individuals to make their utility payments
through their accounts, I think this would get them
into using their accounts much more, and we
do see individuals are starting to actually
make use of these, digital use of their
accounts much more, but I think there
is much more to do and this is one area where
we can make quick gains. – Great, did either of
you want to jump in? – Yeah I mean the
most obvious thing is to make them more useful. And I think that’s
part of the problem, you’ve got lots of
accounts that are not particularly great accounts. There may be bank
branches where people feel uncomfortable coming in,
particularly if they’re of a certain ethnic
group, or income group. And so there’s a long way to go, one of the exciting things
I think about digital is that in some ways it’s
cutting through a lot of that and creating other
possibilities for people to gain access without
having to deal with some of the social
barriers to physically being part of the system. But the contracts also
can be problematic, the prices can be high, I think that the problems
are often structural and need structural responses. – I don’t think I should
let Jonathan go before me. [Panelists Laughing] I think we need to alternate, we’re too close in what we do. My answer was exactly
his, which is, give people stuff
they need and want, right but a bank
account and a loan is not gonna fit every one of every poor person’s
needs and wants, right, so even digital credit,
much as those 15 lenders they offer exactly
the same product. Every single one
of the 15 lenders offers a monthly loan at
x percent, approximately, right, there’s no reason that
there should be one product, once you’re digital. I’m gonna get data on you, I can tailor, I can
do so many things yet there is still
just one product, so I think some of
the use is about people thinking that I
need to provide one thing, and everybody should use it, and that’s just not reality. Different people need
different things, and want different things, and so I think tailoring
is really important. – [Kim] Great, none of you
mentioned in your answer financial literacy programs, are they not
particularly helpful in getting people to
use financial services? Asli, I’m gonna
start here first. But since you– – [Tavneet] Jonathan
you can take that one. [Panelists Laughing] – [Jonathan] That
one over to you. [Tavneet] Oh I
can take that one, I’m happy to take that one. I think it is hard to find
financial literacy programs that have impact
on peoples’ lives, I think that’s the general, what we’ve learned
broadly there’s a couple that have worked but
it’s really hard, and I think partly
that’s because, I don’t think it’s because
financial literacy’s not important, Kim, I’m sure
it’s important in my gut, it’s that we can’t
take a bunch of people and put them in a
classroom for a day and expect them to
have learned something in this environment
that we’re used to in a way we’re used to. So I think on
financial literacy, this is just an opinion
not based on any evidence, is that we kind of need to think very creatively about how
we do financial literacy. There’s been some
interesting RCTs in the poor
population of the US, trying to use
edutainment and gaming and stuff like that to
do financial literacy, we haven’t tested any of that
in the developing world yet, but my sense is that’s maybe
a promising avenue to go. – [Jonathan] Yeah,
I was just in Brazil over the weekend in Sao Paulo at a conference on financial
literacy and education. Brazil’s got a huge
problem with debt, over half the population
is over-indebted, and so there’s great interest
in financial education, especially on the part of banks, but in this conference there was a pretty big part of the
audience that felt like you know this financial
education push is simply pushing responsibility
for over-indebtedness onto the shoulders
of the customers, where it partly belongs,
but part of the problem is also products that
are being marketed in ways that are
not appropriate, products are not
particularly well-designed that are targeted to
vulnerable populations, sometimes with teaser
rates that then go up, and catch people unaware, so I think there’s a
supply-side to this story and a demand side,
and the problem that financial education
is trying to solve can’t be solved only
by financial education, it also needs the
supply-side interventions and consumer protections
to really work. – [Kim] Asli did you want
to add anything to that? – Just very briefly, I do think that
financial literacy is very important to
ensure responsible use of financial services,
I mean I think there was much more
emphasis on this after the subprime
mortgage crisis, but I do agree that, from the research
that I’ve seen, it’s not easy to provide
financial literacy training through the usual
classroom setting. We are still trying to
learn how to do this well through developing
targeted interventions, whether it is taking advantage of teachable moments,
when people are trying, to say for example buy a house, provide the information
that’s around that, or leveraging social networks, if you’re teaching the students
also teach the parents, our remittance senders or
remittance receivers together, or applying really
some type of training to prevent information overload. And as Tavneet mentioned, innovative delivery channels
such as infotainment education seem to hold promise, and there is something
being done in South Africa that also suggests that
there could be progress through use of such channels, but we do need to do much
more work in this area. – [Kim] Great, I’m gonna adjust some of these questions to fit what you guys have talked about, so Jonathan you had
mentioned in the experiment you were doing, I
believe in part of Asia, that you had brought
access to mobile banking to both sides of a transaction, people in the village,
people in a working area. What did you have to
overcome to get them to start using that
mobile technology? Did you have to pay
them in some way or provide a subsidy,
what was the mechanism? – [Jonathan] Yeah it’s
an interesting question. It turned out that, by targeting a population that
really could use the product it didn’t take much more
than just sharing with them how it worked. What was sort of
more striking to us was that the provider,
bKash, the biggest provider, had put in place a
series of barriers that were keeping
people from adopting. For example, as
Tavneet was saying, everything’s on
basic Nokia phones, but the menus were
all in English, and a lot of the unbanked
are not so literate, especially in English
in Bangladesh, no one speaks English
much less Bengali, and so, you know simply
translating menus, right, simply giving some
hands-on experience, that was really most
of what it took, and then they saw the use and
they grabbed hold of that. – [Kim] Is that consistent
with your experience Tavneet elsewhere, that it
just doesn’t take much for people to start
using mobile technology if they have the basic
information about it? – [Tavneet] Yeah, absolutely. I mean, mobile money kind
of seemed to take off, at least in Kenya pretty easily. I think most of the
pieces are not just the piece Jonathan talked about, but the business model-side. I need cash in, cash out
points at both junctions. If there were no cash out
points in the villages, you’re just done ’cause they
can’t get money back out, and because initially,
not everybody’s using it, there’s nowhere to spend it. So I think understanding that
you need cash in, cash out everywhere is part
of that piece. If people can cash in, cash out. I will say people have
some reasonable faith in the telco, I’m not
saying they should, I’m not telling you
whether it’s good or bad, but you know it is
a very prominent part of peoples’ lives because
they’ve been using phones and communicating and you
know buildings are painted in the colors of the
telecommunications companies, and you know there’s
some sense of presence in your everyday life, in a way that the bank doesn’t, the bank used to be
10 kilometers away, the telco was selling airtime
two minutes from your doorstep right, it was selling
you phone credit, so I think that helps a little, with the mobile piece. We’re just running an
experiment now in Kenya where we took a bunch
of people who had data-enabled phones, this
doesn’t have to be a smartphone, you can get the internet
on a non-smartphone, and gave them internet
for the first time, ever, they’ve never used data before and we gave them a whole ton
of data over the last year. And takeup rates are
over 50, 60%, right, so imagine someone who’s
never used the internet, and I just SMS you and say
you have some free data, and we sent them a set
of 10 text messages on how to use the internet, but literally just 160
characters, 10 messages, and 60% of people were using it, and up to the average of the
average user in the country, right so not just a little bit, and so it seems like it
takes very little push to get people on, of course
we’ve paid for the internet, right but, given they’ve
never been on a browser, never used anything, a
bunch of text messages and paying for it,
managed to get ’em on it, I think that sort of
fits the same idea. – [Kim] Just to
elaborate on that, it sounds like there are
some really important network effects,
obviously the value grows when there are more cash
in, cash out points, and more people using it, so making the network
thick actually adds value, and it presumably
attracts people. Asli that brings
me to the question of whether it might
make sense for countries to try and
kickstart this process of creating a network,
and the obvious example I’ve got in mind is India, where you have the
biometric ID process, the remarkably low-cost,
no-frills accounts, as I understand it, more
than 300 million accounts have been created in the
last four to five years, how much does that
network effect in places like India matter? Asli I don’t know if you
wanna jump in on that. – I agree that it’s
been a huge experiment, and it’s been quite
interesting to watch, and the national IDs
and the network effects have been very
important but also, on that I think India
has been criticized because, as Jonathan
was mentioning, a large proportion of those
accounts have not been used. So on the one hand, the
usefulness of these accounts is something that
we need to look at, whether, you know,
providing these accounts to the state-owned banks
is another issue, but obviously, it
could also be lagging that individuals will start learning how to use
these accounts over time. In three years, just
going from about 53% to close to 80% is
a huge accomplishment, even though half of those
accounts are still unused, and we need to see how
these things proceed. – [Tavneet] Can I
add one thing there? – [Kim] Yeah. – [Tavneet] I think the UPI, the universal payments
interface in India, might be game-changing right? Similarly in Kenya you
feel like a lot of, I am actually
disappointed in Kenya, if you think that by
2014 there were universal mobile money accounts, we’ve
had one banking product? That’s pretty bad, and
I think part of that was you couldn’t access the
rails of mobile money very recently. You had to go hang
out at the telco and negotiate with them,
and there’s this behemoth of a guy. So they’ve released an API, if everybody knows
what an API is, I think that’s gonna be
the way we get use up. We can create
innovations but we also need the rails to be available, so I think this growth in APIs, so trying to get
telcos to use APIs to give access to their assets, to innovators and entrepreneurs
will be important. The UPI in India, this
universal payments interface is a bit of that. Where the government’s like,
we’re gonna take it on, we’re gonna do a
payment infrastructure that links bank accounts
through cell phones, and we’re gonna make
it super uber cheap, it’s extremely cheap. So that might sort of try to
jumpstart this use piece of it. – [Kim] And once you
have the network, it becomes self-fulfilling.
– Correct, exactly, exactly. – [Jonathan] On the
government side, there’s some sort of careful
navigation about regulation, right, you want to make it
easy for innovators to move, but you know there’s a
lot of risk involved, and so at some point
you need to put more barriers and getting
that right has been hard, Kenya was very open and
that really helped M-Pesa but then it started to shift. – [Tavneet} Actually
I don’t think so, I don’t think it was
just the government, I actually think the
business model mattered more. If you look at Uganda, they didn’t have the
right business model, the entire system collapsed
and had to be rebuilt, right so, I think that
was very important. – [Jonathan] Yeah.
– Other than the piece of– – Jonathan] I’m not
saying it was sufficient, I’m just saying that
it created space for something to happen. – [Tavneet] Correct. I think there’s
still some countries that just simply don’t allow it. So in that sense,
absolutely, yeah. – [Kim] One of the
questions from a student is about understanding
why there are still very big differences
across regions in financial inclusion. And we could talk about
the role of the state, the role of technology,
the level of income. Asli I don’t know if
you want to jump in but an example would
be the Middle East is relatively low in terms of financial access. What are the reasons you
would attribute there for that difference
compared to other parts of the emerging world? – That’s right, I
mean when we look at the world, almost half
of all the unbanked live in seven countries, right, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan,
and Bangladesh. Some of these
countries have been making great sort of strides, but still obviously
because of the population they are still representing
a large part of the unbanked. When we look at regions, we have sub-Saharan
Africa still around 43%, and Middle East, again, 43%, so why are they lagging? Well when we do ask the unbanked what are some of the reasons that they do not
have a bank account, the most common one is that, they just don’t
have enough money. And the next one is that,
they don’t need the account. But then they also
go ahead and provide reasons such as, high cost, not having the right
account, right product, that fits their needs, distance, lack of trust,
religious reasons, all these things add up, and when you take those out, the proportion of people
who do not want an account drops to only 3%, for example. So in the Middle East I think there are still issues vis a vis trust in the financial system, not having the
design fit the needs of the individuals particularly, the religious issues come in, also still cost and distance are reasons that are given. And obviously the
infrastructure is not there. There is an important
role for the government to play, as I mentioned, because when we think
about inclusion, I mean some people just don’t
want to use the account, some people shouldn’t, because they’re not good
credit risks, for example, but then there’s a huge
group that are excluded because of market failures,
and policy weaknesses, so it’s important
for governments to address weakness in
their information systems, or weaknesses, improve the legal and regulatory frameworks,
such as enforcing contracts, and creditor rights,
again Middle East is not doing as
well in these areas. Another thing that is often not sort of emphasized enough, is the lack of competition
among the existing financial institutions, because by laying the framework, the public sector will
be able to provide the incentives for
the private sector to adopt new technologies
and new innovations, in order to improve
access to financial and sustainably,
appropriately, so. – [Kim] Anybody
wanna jump in or? Okay. – [Tavneet] I think she
got that covered well. (panelists laughing) – [Kim] Actually, risks, it’s come up several
times in the discussion. One of the students
is asking about, what are the risks
associated with rising financial inclusion? What should we worry about? – [Tavneet] I’m happy to, you want me to do it, okay. Well I can talk about
the digital side, if you want, ’cause
I think that’s where most of the financial inclusion
is actually coming in, at least in sub-Saharan
Africa which is where I work. I won’t talk about
the rest too much. – I could talk about the rest. – [Tavneet] Okay
good, Asli (laughing), tag team with Asli today. On the digital side I
think there’s a piece around consumer protection, that’s really really
really important. At least in sub-Saharan Africa, signing something is
a really big deal, it’s a really big deal,
because people worry that they’re signing
their land away to you or something big, and so, when you usually
get a loan at a bank you have to sign something,
this is a really big deal, they go read it, they
get everybody they know to read it before
they’re gonna sign it. With the like M-shwari
I was talking about you just say, accept
terms and conditions, how many of you read
your Google Play store terms and conditions? You might want to, on
the Google Play store, but we all say accept,
right, we don’t read them, but we have institutions we hope that protect us, I think,
well if something goes wrong someone else will figure it out and there’ll be a lawsuit. But in developing
countries when you don’t have those institutions
I worry a little about people saying, accept,
and just doing something without really
understanding what’s there, so I think the consumer
protection issues are gonna be salient
and get more salient, as there’s more products
coming over your phone and people can just get ’em. You know this indebtedness
that Jonathan talked about might be a part of that, we’re still really far from
it in sub-Saharan Africa ’cause people just don’t
have very much credit, but you don’t want
to get to the point where it’s really bad to fix it, so I think that’s
another piece of it, and then, there’s a piece around data protection, data
privacy, and data ownership. You know as people start to use a bunch of the data that the
telcos and the banks have, who owns that data,
who gets to decide how to use that data, I think
those all start to become issues that we want
to be careful about and think carefully about. – [Kim] Asli do you
want to jump in? – Yeah sure, I mean, in
the circles that I operate often when we talk about
financial inclusion, there is this potential
cost that is brought up in terms of stability. So the idea is that
financial inclusion shouldn’t mean finance
for all at all costs, because not all services are
appropriate for everyone, particularly when
it comes to credit, and we do know that there
is the risk of overextension when you know credit
starts expanding without paying attention
to the creditworthiness, and then things can go wrong. One of the examples
that everybody remembers is the subprime mortgage crisis, but it’s not only in the
US that we’ve seen this, we’ve seen this all
around the world, for example, the
microfinance crisis of 2010 where rapid growth of loans
without an appropriate infrastructure made
microfinance borrowers borrow from many many
microfinance institutions, they became over-indebted, there was a lot of personal
bankruptcy proceedings, and then also promotion
of a credit culture that allowed for
borrowers not to repay, particularly during
an election time, and then it all ended
up becoming a crisis. So the point here is I think, one we should be very careful when it comes to
credit-type services, because this type of crisis
is always lurking there. – [Kim] Okay, actually fintech is a big topic at
business schools, and we’ve heard a good
bit about it today, this question is about
fintech in the United States, and specifically about
some of the startups that are operating. Are they doing much to affect
the unbanked in the US, and the underbanked in the US? – [Tavneet] That’s all
Jonathan’s (laughing). – [Jonathan] But there
are lots of startups doing all kinds of things, some are helping us invest
better, and more cheaply, and those aren’t really
helping most people who are poor and aren’t
investing in that way, so those ones aren’t,
but there are some which are really
trying to provide better services to
low income families. So it’s a real mix,
but obviously more that are helping people invest, than are helping
low income families, but there’s some really
cool stuff happening. There’s a company called Even that we got to know, which
is helping low income people manage the ups and
downs of their incomes through an app, like Mint, or another aggregator like that, and helping them figure out how much they can
spend and not spend. There are other apps
that are helping people get hold of their
next paycheck more quickly, called PayActiv, which
is helping people then reduce reliance
on payday lenders and things like that. So there’s a lot of
possibility with fintech for the low income sector. – [Kim] Correct. Asli I’m not sure you didn’t
wanna add anything on that? – Actually I should
look into them, I saw that question and I sort of Googled them and
I found out about them, I just don’t know
as much about them to be able to say much. – [Kim] No problem. The question from
Professor Said is about what we can learn
in the United States from developments abroad
in the emerging world, and vice versa. Are there gains from
trade in knowledge about how to address the
unbanked and the underbanked across the US and
emerging world borders? – [Tavneet] I’m happy to start, Jonathan it’s up to you,
whichever way you want. – [Jonathan] Yeah I think we can kind of split this question. – [Tavneet] Okay, go for it. Alright, I’ll start. So I think there’s a piece of the mobile payments and
digital finance story in the developing world
that’s hard to replicate here. Partly because there wasn’t
a ton of regulation there, so actually when we started
working mobile money we met the people at the
Fed who work on payments, and they said, oh we would
do this for the unbanked, and when we started to explain how every piece of
the puzzle worked, they went, oh,
can’t do that piece, it hits this regulation,
can’t do that piece, it hits this regulation,
oh can’t do that piece, and I was like okay
I’m just gonna stop, like there’s no point
going any further, so I think in
environments that don’t do a lot of crazy
financial transactions, there’s not a lot of regulation, which means you can build
the regulation you need for this stuff. I think it’s hard
to import that here because all the
pieces hit up against some existing regulation. That said, I think
there’s some pieces that are applicable, right. Social networks matter a little, and in the US we’ve
largely not integrated that into financial systems,
except for maybe Venmo or something right,
but the reason Venmo seems to be popular is because
we have social networks and they matter. So I think there’s some
pieces of the puzzle that we can bring back, and try to think about
how we can be creative about those and providing
benefits to people that fit our
regulatory environment. Jonathan? – [Jonathan] Yeah. You know it was interesting, I am, like Tavneet, a
development economist, spent most of my career thinking about India, Bangladesh, and then coming
to work in the US I was surprised at how relevant the kinds of tools and
frameworks that we have, how applicable they were
in poor communities, low income communities here. And so just to build on
what Tavneet was saying, for example, when
we look at credit, in the families we
got to know here, credit cards were the number
one biggest source of credit, but number two is loans
from family and friends. And so as a
development economist it’s like yeah–
– Of course. – [Jonathan] We can
talk about that, we even saw ROSCAs
and things like that, so there’s a lot
going on like that and as Tavneet said, you
can start to think about developing financial products
that have social elements that really can function. We don’t have much
innovation like that here. The other thing
going the other way is that in the US
we think a lot about longterm financial products,
like retirement products, those are becoming
more important in lots of places as the
whole world is aging. In Brazil it’s a huge concern, with the retirement system. One of the things we see here that’s being
experimented with is how we address the
problem that people are putting money into
their retirement accounts, and then they’re
taking it out, right, it’s becoming a sort of
short-term savings vehicle particularly for
low income people. And one of the
innovations that people are experimenting with,
both in the US and UK, is a retirement account
that you default into, while defaulting also into
a small emergency savings account on the side, so
you can dip into that, instead of having to touch
your retirement accounts. So I think there’s
a lot more thinking and experimentation on
that side in the US, that will be very relevant to at least some subset
of developing economies. – [Kim] Asli, I
think we’re running– – Well on the West, I
think it’s interesting to look at different
proportions, about 93% of the
adult population appears to be banked, in terms
of having a bank account, obviously that could be higher because in the same
range of countries, you do have a lot of
countries with 100% banked, but when you look at
you know what reasons individuals give
for being unbanked they are very similar to
again, developing countries, basically mostly they’ll
say they just don’t have enough money, or
they do not need one, and then the most
important reason that overlaps with that is that they require balances,
and the fees, and the accounts
are just too costly, so I imagine again,
low fee accounts, or simple no-fee accounts, could help, and financial
awareness programs could also help, maybe sometimes people think that they
don’t need an account and they don’t
understand how to use it, maybe that could help. – [Kim] Asli, for the
last question today, I’d like to turn to you, to answer the question
about the World Bank’s goals for financial inclusion. My understanding is the aim
is to eliminate the unbanked in about two more years. That strikes me as a
little bit ambitious, although ambitious
goals are useful. Where do you think we’re headed, how quickly can we have
the number of unbanked that we see today, 1.7 billion
in your latest Global Findex? – Yes, well that’s
an ambitious target as you mentioned. I hope we make advances
towards that target, I will not try to forecast
how soon we can meet such a target. (panelists laughing) – [Kim] Okay, anybody
else want to forecast? – [Tavneet] No, definitely
not about the World Bank. – [Kim] Okay, well
I hope everyone will join me in thanking
our panelists today. (audience clapping)

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